The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 13 January 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Tuesday, Jan 13. TX/OK: The first of this week’s cold fronts moved through the Texas-Oklahoma region yesterday afternoon and overnight bringing cold morning temperatures and northwest winds. Today will see mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the 40s in Oklahoma and the 50s in much of Texas. Winds will be gradually shifting to southerly throughout the day. Overnight temperatures will be cold again tonight ranging from the mid 20s to low 30s throughout the region. Tomorrow will bring a warm up early in the day ahead of the next cold front which will be entering the region tomorrow afternoon. This will bring another blast of Arctic air for Wednesday night and Thursday.


Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories slowly move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the southeast this afternoon and then shift northeast as the winds shift back to southerly. Over night the trajectories swing east and south. The trajectories show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind with the air mass moving near ground level. Sunny skies will prevail across the region but low temperatures this morning occurred at the source areas limiting pollen release. The afternoon temperatures will barely reach the favorable range. Overnight temperatures tonight will be low again with lows in the upper 20s with a warm up tomorrow.


OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate Threat today *** mostly unfavorable conditions for pollen release. Sunny dry conditions will occur today, but temperatures just getting into the favorable range this afternoon will reduce the chance of any significant pollen release. Cold temperatures will occur tonight, and warming (of about 10 degrees) is expected tomorrow. In addition, poor atmospheric conditions exist for pollen entrainment and travel so any pollen that is released will likely stay close to the source area.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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