The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 13 January 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Tuesday, Jan 13. TX/OK: The first of this week’s cold fronts moved through the Texas-Oklahoma region yesterday afternoon and overnight bringing cold morning temperatures and northwest winds. Today will see mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the 40s in Oklahoma and the 50s in much of Texas. Winds will be gradually shifting to southerly throughout the day. Overnight temperatures will be cold again tonight ranging from the mid 20s to low 30s throughout the region. Tomorrow will bring a warm up early in the day ahead of the next cold front which will be entering the region tomorrow afternoon. This will bring another blast of Arctic air for Wednesday night and Thursday.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from Edwards Plateau circle around Texas and southern Oklahoma in response to the shifting winds patterns affecting the region over the next 48 hours. Each of the trajectories shows characteristics associated with the cold air as the air masses sink towards the ground or move primarily close to ground level. Conditions at the source areas on the western side of the Plateau were cold this morning limiting pollen release to the afternoon hours. Temperatures will be in the favorable range this afternoon across the Plateau with clear sunny skies. The trees are near the peak of the pollination season, so significant pollen release should be expected. Since conditions are not conducive to downwind dispersal, pollen will stay close to source areas today. Overnight temperatures will be cold again tonight but will warm up tomorrow.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat today *** Favorable conditions for pollen release this afternoon. Temperatures will be in the 50s with sunny skies; however, the trajectory characteristics do not show perfect atmospheric conditions leading to entrainment and travel downwind. Since the trees are nearing their peak release period significant amounts of pollen release can be expected. Communities close to the source areas of the Edwards Plateau are at heightened risk.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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