The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 14 January 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather:Wednesday, Jan 14. TX/OK: Mild temperatures will dramatically change this afternoon and evening as a strong cold front moves across the southern plains and Texas. Temperatures will be above average in the upper 50s in Oklahoma and low to mid 60s in Texas ahead of the front. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy during the day today. In Oklahoma winds will be light variable in the morning and shifting to moderate northerly winds as the front moves into the area this afternoon. In Texas winds will be from the south and moderate during the day. The front will move through Texas during the overnight hours bringing much colder temperatures for Thursday. Overnight tonight temperatures will be in the teens and low 20s in Oklahoma and 30s in Texas. Temperatures tomorrow will be in the 20s to low 30s in Oklahoma and 40s to low 50s in Texas with partly cloudy skies and moderate northeast winds.



Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains circle around southern Oklahoma and north Texas and then move east. The trajectories show mixed characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind. At the source area temperatures will be cool this morning but warm quickly to the upper 50s and low 60s. Sunny skies will prevail across the source area this afternoon. Once the cold front passes late this afternoon, temperatures will drop quickly with overnight temperatures in the low 20s. Cold conditions will continue for the next couple of days.



OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat today *** favorable conditions for pollen release. Sunny dry conditions will occur today with warm temperatures. Trajectories suggest that much of the pollen will remain in the southern Oklahoma – north Texas area. Cold temperatures will be in place tonight and tomorrow reducing the risk of pollen for the next couple of days.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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