The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 14 January 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Wednesday, Jan 14. TX/OK: Mild temperatures will dramatically change this afternoon and evening as a strong cold front moves across the southern plains and Texas. Temperatures will be above average in the upper 50s in Oklahoma and low to mid 60s in Texas ahead of the front. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy during the day today. In Oklahoma winds will be light variable in the morning and shifting to moderate northerly winds as the front moves into the area this afternoon. In Texas winds will be from the south and moderate during the day. The front will move through Texas during the overnight hours bringing much colder temperatures for Thursday. Overnight tonight temperatures will be in the teens and low 20s in Oklahoma and 30s in Texas. Temperatures tomorrow will be in the 20s to low 30s in Oklahoma and 40s to low 50s in Texas with partly cloudy skies and moderate northeast winds.




Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from Edwards Plateau move to the north and then circle around north central Texas. Each of the trajectories shows mixed characteristics for downwind dispersal. Conditions at the sources will be warm and dry with sunny clear skies. The trees are near the peak of the pollination season therefore significant pollen may be released. The strong cold front will move through the state overnight tonight bringing colder conditions to the Plateau area for tomorrow. Overnight lows will be in the 30s and highs tomorrow in the 40s.




OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today *** Good conditions for pollen release. Sunny skies with dry conditions and warm temperatures are good for pollen release today. Since the trees are nearing their peak release period significant amounts of pollen release might be expected. Across the region the cold air will move into Texas overnight bringing lower temperatures and reducing the pollen release for tomorrow.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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