The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 15 January 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Thursday, Jan 15. TX/OK: Cold air has settled over the Southern Plains this morning with low temperatures ranging from the single digits and lower teens in northern Oklahoma to the lower 20s in western North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Morning temperatures in central and southern Texas are more moderate. Northeast winds of 10 to 20 mph combined with the cold temperatures resulted in wind chill values ranging from near zero in far northern Oklahoma...to the teens in western North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Intermittent light snow will continue across portions of northern into central Oklahoma this morning. Highs today will be in the low 20s in northern and central Oklahoma to the low 30s in southern Oklahoma. In Texas temperatures will range from the low 40s in the north to the mid 60s in the south. Skies will range from clear to mostly cloudy with moderate to strong northeast winds throughout the region. Overnight lows will be in the single digits in northern Oklahoma to the low 30s in southern Texas. Temperatures tomorrow will range from the mid 30s to the upper 40s throughout the region with clear to partly cloudy skies and the return of southerly winds to most of the region.


Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move to the west, southwest over west Texas and then circle back around to the east. The trajectories show mixed characteristics for entrainment and travel with the trajectories from western regions showing greater lift and greater likelihood for transport. Conditions at the source area will be cool today but temperatures will reach the favorable range this afternoon in most areas of the Plateau especially toward the south. The trees are near the peak of the pollen season therefore some pollen may be released but the cool temperatures should reduce the release somewhat in some areas.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat today *** Conditions are favorable for pollen release in some areas but mixed in others. Since the trees are near their peak release period significant amounts of pollen release might be expected in some areas. Southern areas with warmer temperatures are at greater risk for pollen exposure.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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