The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 16 January 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Friday, Jan 16. TX/OK: The Arctic high continues to push southeast moving out of the region. Winds will gradually return to southerly although temperatures will still be below normal today. In Oklahoma, highs will range from the mid 30s to 40 degrees under clear to partly cloudy skies and light to moderate southerly winds. In Texas, cloud cover will keep the temperatures in the 40s through most of central Texas with a chance of spotty drizzle during the day. Winds in Texas will gradually shift from easterly to southerly by evening. Overnight lows will be much warmer than last night with temperatures ranging from the upper 20s in the north to the low 40s in the south. Temperatures tomorrow will continue to warm up with highs in the mid 50s in Oklahoma and upper 50s to low 60s in Texas. Winds will be from the southwest with clear skies in Oklahoma and cloudy skies in Texas. A chance of light drizzle continues in central Texas. Winds will gradually shift to northwesterly late tomorrow as a weak cold front moves in to the region.




Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from eastern Texas move to the west and then turn northeast over central Texas and Oklahoma, whereas those from the western side of the Edwards Plateau directly move to the northeast. The trajectories show poor to moderate characteristics for entrainment and travel. Conditions at the sources will be cool today with cloudy skies and a chance of light drizzle. Tonight temperatures will stay above freezing with warmer temperatures tomorrow and southwest winds tomorrow. A chance of drizzle still remains in the forecast for tomorrow in central Texas.




OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate Threat today *** Marginal conditions for pollen release. Temperatures will reach the favorable range but remain in the 40s through central Texas; however, a slight chance of drizzle exists for the Plateau region. Since the trees are near the peak release period significant amounts of pollen release might be expected in areas where localized temperatures may be greater and conditions are drier. Overall the cool conditions should restrain significant release. Also, the trajectory characteristics do not show perfect atmospheric conditions leading to entrainment and travel downwind. Warmer temperatures tomorrow may increase the risk of pollen exposure.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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