The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
SATURDAY / SUNDAY
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Oklahoma City |
Low |
Tulsa |
Low |
St. Louis MO |
Low |
Date Issued: 17 January 2009
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional Weather:Saturday
and Sunday, Jan 17 and 18. TX/OK:
A weak frontal system is moving through northern Oklahoma this morning shifting winds from southwest to northwest
and dropping dew points. This front will bring only slightly cooler air into the region. On the whole, temperatures
on Saturday and Sunday will be quite mild. Oklahoma will see daytime temperatures today in the mid 50s to low 60s
with clear to partly cloudy skies and moderate winds shifting to northwesterly. Overnight temperatures will range
from the upper 20s to the mid 30s in Oklahoma. On Sunday Oklahoma will have clear to partly cloudy skies with highs
in the 50s and moderate northwesterly winds. Sunday night will have lows in the upper 20s to low 30s across the
state. In Texas high temperatures today will be in the low 60s with partly to mostly cloudy skies. There will be
a chance of light fog or drizzle in some areas. Winds will be from the southwest. Overnight lows tonight will range
from the mid 30s to the upper 40s. On Sunday skies will be clear to partly cloudy with temperatures ranging from
the low 60s to the low 70s and moderate northwest winds across the region. Conditions will be dry. Sunday night
lows will range from the upper 20s to upper 30s.
Trajectory weather:
Today, the air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the east over southeastern Oklahoma and southern
Arkansas. The trajectories show good characteristics for entrainment and travel of pollen downwind. Sunny to partly
cloudy skies will prevail across the region with temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s. Conditions at the source
populations are favorable for pollen release. On Sunday, trajectories move to the southeast over east Texas on
moderate northwest winds. Trajectories show poor characteristics for downwind travel of pollen. Conditions at the
source area will be continue to be mild with temperatures in the mid to upper 50s and clear to partly cloudy skies
with northwest winds.
OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat today and tomorrow
*** favorable conditions for pollen release. Sunny to partly
cloudy conditions with mild temperatures will occur today and tomorrow. Winds will shift from the west to the northwest
as a weak frontal system moves through the region. Pollen released today will travel to the east for a moderate
to high threat for southeastern Oklahoma and southern Arkansas. Tomorrow’s trajectories travel to east Texas but
most of the pollen will remain close to the source area with poor transport conditions.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black
star on map): Sulfur, OK.
SATURDAY
SUNDAY
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin
(Faculty
of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter
K Van de Water
(Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue,
M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen,
weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various
metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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