The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Oklahoma City |
Low |
Tulsa |
Low |
St. Louis MO |
Low |
Date Issued: 19 January 2009
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK
Regional Weather: Monday, Jan 19. TX/OK: Across
the region warm sunny conditions will occur today with warm conditions and light to moderate winds from the north
and northwest. In Oklahoma, temperatures will be in the 50s. Winds will begin light and build towards moderate
conditions during the day and overnight. Tonight temperatures will be in the lower 30s with clear skies and continued
sunny tomorrow, maintaining moderate winds from the northwest. Temperatures will cool by 10 degrees or so. Tomorrow
night skies will remain clear with low temperatures returning to the lower 30s and winds relaxing to light and
variable. In Texas, this morning will see temperatures in the 30s, higher around the Plateau than on the higher
elevations of the Plateau. Today temperatures will reach the 70s in many regions. Winds will be from the northwest
and moderate building to stronger sustained winds this afternoon. Tonight temperatures will be in the mid 30s
on the Plateau and in the lower 40s in the surrounding communities. Winds will continue northwesterly and become
lighter over the evening hours. Tomorrow skies will remain clear and sunny with high temperatures around 5 to
10 degrees cooler. Winds will remain from the northwest and again return to lighter conditions.
Trajectory weather: Clear skies today with temperatures in the 50s will occur in the Arbuckles of southern
Oklahoma. Winds will be light to moderate from the northwest and will remain steady overnight from the northwest.
The trajectories show that the air mass will move toward the south, southeast today and tonight towards the Gulf
of Mexico. Tomorrow winds will maintain their northwestern direction with sunny but cooler conditions. Conditions
in the tree population in the Arbuckle Mountains will be good for pollen release today and tomorrow because of
warm sunny conditions and moderate winds. Moderate winds today but with stable atmospheric conditions will result
in only moderate conditions for travel of pollen entrained into the atmosphere.
OUTLOOK: *** High Threat *** favorable conditions for pollen release today along with
fair conditions for entrainment and transport today. Warm conditions with moderate winds will present favorable
conditions for pollen release but only fair conditions for entrainment and travel. Winds today will be towards
the south today and tomorrow. However, stable air masses across the region may partially restrict the disseminating
of pollen long distances from the source. As a result much of the pollen will remain local. Tomorrow, winds remain
from the northwest at moderate strength. Sunny skies and dry conditions will maintain the chance of pollen dispersal
tomorrow.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black
star on map): Sulfur, OK.
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin
(Faculty
of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter
K Van de Water
(Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue,
M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen,
weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various
metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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