The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 20 January 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 20, TX/OK: Across the region sunny to partly cloudy skies will continue today with temperatures slightly cooler than yesterday. Winds will be moderate today from the north across the region. In Oklahoma temperatures will range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s. Winds will be from the north and moderate during the day, then shifting to light and variable overnight. Tonight temperatures will be in the lower 30s with clear skies. Wednesday will be sunny maintaining light and variable winds. Temperatures will warm by 10 or more degrees. Tomorrow night skies will remain clear with temperatures in the mid 30s and winds remaining light and variable. In Texas today’s temperatures will reach into the mid 60s across the Edwards Plateau and near 70 along the southern edge of the region. Winds will be from the north and moderate to strong this afternoon. Tonight temperatures will be in the low 30s on the Plateau and in the upper 30s in the surrounding communities and winds will be light to moderate from the southwesterly direction. On Wednesday skies will remain clear and sunny with high temperatures around 10 to 15 degrees warmer than today. Winds will remain from the southwest and moderate in strength.

Trajectory weather: Clear skies with warm conditions will occur across central Texas today. Winds will be moderate starting from the north, shifting from the southwest overnight. Winds will relax to light overnight. The trajectories from the Edwards Plateau show that the air mass will move toward the south today and tonight before circling around towards the northeast as the winds from the southwest take over. Tomorrow southwest winds will continue with sunny and warmer conditions. Conditions in the tree population on the Edwards Plateau will be good for pollen release today and tomorrow because of warm sunny conditions and moderate winds. Tomorrow, light and variable winds will be less conducive to entrainment and travel. In addition, stable atmospheric conditions will result in only moderate to good conditions for travel of pollen entrained in the atmosphere.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat*** favorable conditions for pollen release along with moderate conditions for entrainment and transport. Warm conditions with moderate winds will present favorable conditions for pollen release, and fair conditions for entrainment and travel. Winds will be towards the south today then turning towards the northeast tonight and tomorrow. Entrained pollen will flow over southern Texas during the next 24 to 48 hours. However, stable air masses across the region may partially restrict the disseminating of pollen long distances from the source. Tomorrow, winds will shift from the southwest at moderate strength. Sunny skies and dry conditions will maintain the chance of pollen dispersal and movement tomorrow. Very high levels of pollen have been recorded over the past few days. Very high concentrations are expected to continue across the region today and tomorrow.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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