The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 22 January 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 22 – TX/OK: Across the region warm sunny conditions will continue today with cooler weather moving into the region beginning on Friday. Winds will be moderate today primarily from the south increasing in some areas this afternoon. In Oklahoma, high temperatures will be in the low 70s this afternoon. Tonight temperatures will be in the lower 40s with partly cloudy skies and winds shifting to the north by morning. On Friday skies will be partly cloudy skies with temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to the mid 60s in the state and moderate winds. Tomorrow night skies will be partly cloudy with temperatures reaching only the mid 30s. In Texas, today’s temperatures will warm into the upper 70s and maybe reaching the low 80s in some areas. Winds will be moderate from the southwest gaining in strength this afternoon. Tonight temperatures will be in the 50s across the region. Winds will remain moderate across the region from the south and southwest. Tomorrow skies will remain mostly sunny in the surrounding communities, with partly cloudy skies over the Plateau. High temperatures will be in the lower 80s with moderate to strong winds from the west across the Plateau and the south in the surrounding communities. Tomorrow night, temperatures will fall into the 40s across the Plateau and remain in the 50s in the surrounding communities. Winds on the Plateau will remain moderate, coming from a northerly direction, while those in the surrounding communities will remain moderate from the south.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the north, northeast this afternoon under the influence of moderate south, southwest winds. Clear skies today, with very warm conditions will occur at the source area. Winds will be moderate (10 to 15 mph) from the south, southwest and will carry pollen over central and northeast Oklahoma then shift progressively east. Conditions in the tree population in the Arbuckle Mountains will be good for pollen release today and tomorrow because of warm sunny conditions and moderate to strong winds.


OUTLOOK: *** High Threat *** very favorable conditions for pollen release along with good conditions for entrainment and transport. Warm conditions with moderate to strong winds will present favorable conditions for pollen release, entrainment and travel. Winds today will be initially from the south today. Buoyant atmospheric conditions and strong winds across the region will result in very good conditions for the dissemination of pollen long distances from the source.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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