The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 23 January 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Friday, January 23 – TX/OK: A cold front has entered the region this morning bringing colder temperatures to Oklahoma today, but in Texas the warm conditions will continue today. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy in the north to mostly sunny to the south. Temperatures across the region will be variable as the cold front moves through Oklahoma and into north Texas. In central and southern Texas it will remain unseasonably warm today but will then drop significantly overnight and tomorrow. Winds will be moderate to strong today primarily from the north, northeast in Oklahoma and the south in Texas switching late today and overnight to northerly winds as cold air moves in from the north. In Oklahoma, high temperatures will range from the 50s in the north to the low 60s in the south. Winds will start light and variable but then become increasingly strong and from the north during the day and into the evening. Tonight temperatures will be in the lower 30s with partly cloudy skies then partly cloudy skies tomorrow. Temperatures will only reach into the 40s on Saturday. Winds will maintain moderate conditions and from the north to northeast. Tomorrow night skies will remain partly cloudy with temperatures dropping into the upper 20’s. In Texas, today’s temperatures will warm into the 80s but with sunny to partly cloudy conditions. Winds will be moderate from the south gaining in strength this afternoon. Tonight temperatures will be in the lower 50s across the region. Winds will remain strong (15-20 mph) across the region from the south but switch overnight blowing from the north. Tomorrow skies will become partly cloudy across the region. Significant cooling will result in high temperatures in the 50s and low 60s tomorrow. Moderate to strong winds will continue from the north eventually switching from a more easterly direction overnight.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains are variable. At the lower altitudes the trajectories move to the south, southwest along with the cold air moving into the region, but the upper atmosphere trajectories first move west then circle back to the east. Partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the low 60s will occur where the Juniperus asheii population grows. Winds will be moderate to strong from the north. Pollen entrained into the atmosphere will have its greatest impact in communities southwest of the population. Tomorrow winds will relax a bit then increase again with a slight shift to an easterly direction. Conditions in the tree population in the Arbuckle Mountains will be good for pollen release today because of warm conditions and moderate winds. Atmospheric conditions will result in moderate to good conditions for travel of pollen entrained in the atmosphere.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat *** mostly favorable conditions for pollen release along with fairly good conditions for entrainment and transport. Warm conditions with moderate to strong winds will present favorable conditions for pollen release, and good conditions for entrainment and travel. Winds today will be primarily from the north, northeast. Atmospheric conditions across the region will result in good conditions for the dissemination of pollen.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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