The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 23 January 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Friday, January 23 – TX/OK: A cold front has entered the region this morning bringing colder temperatures to Oklahoma today, but in Texas the unseasonably warm conditions will continue today. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy in the north to mostly sunny to the south. Temperatures across the region will be variable as the cold front moves through Oklahoma and into north Texas. In central and southern Texas it will remain unseasonably warm today but will then drop significantly overnight and tomorrow. Winds will be moderate to strong today primarily from the north, northeast in Oklahoma and the south in Texas switching late today and overnight to northerly winds as cold air moves in from the north. In Oklahoma, high temperatures will range from the 50s in the north to the low 60s in the south. Winds will start light and variable but then become increasingly strong and from the north during the day and into the evening. Tonight temperatures will be in the lower 30s with partly cloudy skies then partly cloudy skies tomorrow. Temperatures will only reach into the 40s on Saturday. Winds will maintain moderate conditions and from the north to northeast. Tomorrow night skies will remain partly cloudy with temperatures dropping into the upper 20’s. In Texas, today’s temperatures will warm into the 80s but with sunny to partly cloudy conditions. Winds will be moderate from the south gaining in strength this afternoon. Tonight temperatures will be in the lower 50s across the region. Winds will remain strong (15-20 mph) across the region from the south but switch overnight blowing from the north. Tomorrow skies will become partly cloudy across the region. Significant cooling will result in high temperatures in the 50s and low 60s tomorrow. Moderate to strong winds will continue from the north eventually switching from a more easterly direction overnight.



Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories from eastern side of the Edwards Plateau move to the northeast and then curve, whereas those from the western side of the Edwards Plateau mainly move to the east. Sunny shifting towards partly cloudy skies will occur today with very warm conditions throughout Texas. Winds will be moderate to strong starting from the south, southwest but switching from the north after midnight. Winds will maintain their strength overnight. Pollen entrained into the atmosphere will have its greatest impact in communities east of the Edwards Plateau. Tomorrow winds will relax a bit then increase again and come from the north. Conditions in the tree population in central Texas will be good for pollen release today because of warm conditions and moderate to strong winds. Tomorrow, winds will shift from the north as colder air pushes into the region. Trajectory characteristics are mixed for entrainment and travel.



OUTLOOK: *** High Threat *** favorable conditions for pollen release but less than optimal for travel. Warm conditions with moderate to strong winds will present favorable conditions for pollen release. Pollen is likely to stay close to the source areas with mixed conditions for downwind dispersal. Winds today will be initially from the southwest but then blow from the west pushing any entrained pollen towards the east. Tomorrow, winds will be from the north and remain moderate to strong.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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