The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

SATURDAY / SUNDAY

 

Date Issued: 24 January 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Saturday and Sunday, January 24 and 25 – TX/OK: Across the region cold conditions will occur today with some warming tomorrow. Temperatures will be in the 30s today in Oklahoma with clear to partly cloudy skies and moderate to strong winds from the north. Overnight temperatures will be in the 20s with winds shifting to easterly. Temperatures tomorrow will be about 10 degrees warmer than today with highs reaching the 40s across Oklahoma. Skies will be partly cloudy and winds from the east, southeast. Tomorrow night clouds will increase. Temperatures will be in the 20s in the north and the 30s in the south with a chance of drizzle or freezing drizzle. Today, in north Texas and on the Edwards Plateau temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s, while slightly warmer conditions, mid-50s, will occur in communities to the south. Winds will be from the north today switching to a northeasterly direction overnight with skies clear to partly cloudy. Overnight lows will range from the mid 20s to the upper 30s. Temperatures on Sunday will rebound back into the mid-to upper 60s across much of Texas with winds coming from the south or southeast. Mostly sunny skies will return on Sunday but partly cloudy conditions will return Sunday night with the chance of drizzle in some areas.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories move from the Arbuckle Mountains to the southwest and then circle back around western Oklahoma overnight. Trajectory characteristics show poor conditions for entrainment of pollen and downwind dispersal. At the source area today skies are clear to partly cold with cold temperatures. On Sunday trajectories move toward the southwest across western Oklahoma. High temperatures tomorrow will only reach the mid to upper 40s. Conditions in the tree population in the Arbuckle Mountains will be poor for pollen release today and only slightly better tomorrow because of cold temperatures and dense, cold atmospheric conditions. Tomorrow weather conditions will degrade again towards the evening hours as the chance of drizzle increases.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** unfavorable conditions for pollen release along with poor conditions for entrainment and transport. Cold temperatures will present unfavorable conditions for pollen release today. Tomorrow conditions improve slightly but will only just reach favorable temperatures in the afternoon. Winds today will circle around eventually heading towards western Oklahoma tomorrow. Even though there is a low threat for pollen from the Oklahoma populations winds from the Texas region will flow over Oklahoma tomorro

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

SATURDAY

SUNDAY

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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