The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 26 January 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday, January 26 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be increasingly affected by the movement of cold air from the north today and tomorrow. In Oklahoma, cold temperatures have already arrived with readings in the upper 20s and mid 30s today and tomorrow. Skies will be cloudy with likelihood of rain, freezing rain, sleet or snow both today and tomorrow. Winds will be moderate starting from the east today, switching towards the northeast overnight and then from the north tomorrow. Temperatures will be in the upper 20s tonight and upper teens and lower 20s tomorrow night. In Texas, warm weather will occur today ahead of the cold air moving into the area. Today, temperatures will range from the upper 40s in the north to the upper 60s and low 70s in the south. Across the region skies will be cloudy with a 20% chance of precipitation today, tonight and tomorrow. The chance of rain will increase on the Plateau tomorrow night. Winds today will be from the southeast and moderate to strong across the region. Late tonight and tomorrow morning winds will turn, coming out of the north as the cold front moves southward. As cold air moves in to the region temperatures will cool by 30 degrees or more with areas on the Plateau potentially seeing drizzle and freezing fog overnight on Tuesday night.

Trajectory weather: The air mass trajectories move towards the west to southwest initially. At the lowest elevations the winds continue toward the south as the cold front moves in. Aloft the wind are more variable moving to the east and northeast. Cloudy skies today and tonight, with cold temperatures and rain and/or freezing rain will occur at the source in southern Oklahoma. Winds will be moderate and from the east to northeast initially today then switch to a northerly direction as the cold front moves through. Conditions in the tree population in the Arbuckle Mountains will be poor for pollen release today and tomorrow because of cold cloudy conditions, moderate winds and precipitation today and tomorrow.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** poor conditions for pollen release along with poor conditions for entrainment and transport. Cold conditions with moderate winds and precipitation will present poor conditions for pollen release, and poor conditions for entrainment and travel.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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