The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 27 January 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 27 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be affected by cold air and precipitation from the north today and tomorrow. In Oklahoma, high temperatures will be in the 20s today. Freezing rain and sleet will continue through most of the state with moderate to strong northerly winds. Overnight lows will be in the teens and high temperatures in the 30s tomorrow. Tomorrow winds will decrease and switch first from the west and then tomorrow night from the south. In Texas, temperatures will range from upper 20 and low 30s in the north after the cold front passes to the 70s in south ahead of the front. The cold front will continue to move south today. As the cold weather moves in, light rain will turn to light freezing rain throughout the region. Tonight temperatures will be in the mid to low 30s on the Plateau and in the mid to upper 30s in the surrounding communities. Winds will be moderate to strong from the north today and tomorrow. Tomorrow night, winds will begin to turn from the northeast in the surrounding areas and from the southwest along the western portion of the Edwards Plateau.



Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move to the south today under the influence of the strong northerly winds associated with the cold front. Cloudy skies today and tonight, with cold conditions and the chance of precipitation (rain and freezing rain) will occur on the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities starting late today as the cold front moves into the region. There is a 50% to 80% chance of precipitation on the Edwards Plateau and the surrounding communities, especially tonight. Winds will be moderate to strong from the north today, tonight and tomorrow. Conditions in the tree population on the Edwards Plateau and surrounding communities will be poor for pollen release today and tomorrow because of cold cloudy conditions, a significant chance of precipitation, moderate winds and a dense heavy atmosphere that will stay near the ground. Similar conditions will occur tomorrow but with an overall reduction in the chance of rain throughout the region.



OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat *** generally poor conditions for pollen release along with poor conditions for entrainment and transport. Cold conditions with moderate winds and the chance of precipitation will present poor conditions for pollen release, and poor conditions for entrainment and travel. Winds today will be towards the south today, tonight and tomorrow. In San Antonio and surrounding areas there is a moderate risk of pollen release early today ahead of the cold front. However, humidity is high which will limit the release. Once the cold front moves through, pollen release will be inhibited.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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