The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 28 January 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 28 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be improving, returning to somewhat warmer conditions this afternoon. In Oklahoma, high temperatures will be in the upper 20s and low 30s today after overnight lows in the teens. Temperatures will be warming to the 40s on Thursday. Winds today will be light and variable increasing to moderate conditions tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night. Skies today will be mostly sunny, then partly cloudy tonight and tomorrow clearing towards tomorrow evening. In Texas, temperatures are low this morning ranging from the teens to the low 40s. Skies range from clear to mostly cloudy across the Plateau. Later this afternoon skies will turn sunny and high temperatures are expected to reach into the 50s with moderate variable winds. Tonight skies will be mostly clear with cold temperatures into the upper 20s and lower 30’s. On Thursday skies will be sunny to partly cloudy across the area with temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s. On Thursday winds will shift out of the northeast at moderate levels.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau circle around central and west Texas for the next 48 hours. The atmosphere will remain cold and dense moving near ground level initially but start to rise as the air becomes more buoyant. The wintry weather has moved out of the region and sunny to partly cloudy skies will return with temperatures reaching into the 50s later this afternoon after low morning temperatures. On the Edwards Plateau winds will be moderate and variable. Mostly clear skies will occur overnight with cold temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s. Tomorrow sunny to partly cloudy skies will reign across the region with temperatures increasing into the 50s on the Plateau and reaching towards the low 60s in the surrounding communities. Winds will be from the north and northeast, moving towards a more easterly direction tomorrow night.


OUTLOOK: *** Low to Moderate Threat *** poor conditions for pollen release this morning along with poor conditions for entrainment and transport. Cold conditions this morning after low overnight temperatures morning should restrict pollen release throughout the region. However, warming conditions late in the day may be enough to result in some restricted pollen release. The atmosphere will remain humid and cold both conditions that are poor for pollen release and entrainment. Winds will be moderate throughout the region therefore any entrained pollen will not move significant distances. On Thursday conditions will begin to improve as sunny skies return and temperatures begin to warm. As conditions warm and dry the potential for pollen release will return, coupled with more buoyant atmospheric conditions for entrainment and downwind travel.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SAN ANGELO

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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