The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 30 January 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Friday, January 30 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will continue warming today and tomorrow. Skies will be sunny across the region today and clear to mostly clear tonight. In Oklahoma sunny skies will bring temperatures into the mid to upper 50s with west winds starting light but building towards the afternoon and early evening. Overnight low temperatures will be in the low 30s as winds become light and variable. Tomorrow conditions will continue warm as high temperatures are expected in the upper 60s. Winds will pivot from a westerly direction to southerly becoming moderate to strong. In Texas, sunny skies will prevail today and tomorrow. High temperatures today are expected to be in the low to mid 60s today and the upper 60s to low 70s tomorrow. Winds will be from the west, southwest today across the Edwards Plateau starting as light but building towards the afternoon gaining in strength and shifting to southerly winds tomorrow.



Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the east this afternoon into Arkansas and then shift to the northeast tomorrow. The atmosphere will remain dense today with the air mass moving near or at ground level. At the source area, mostly sunny skies will occur today with temperatures in the upper 50s. Overnight lows will be in the lower 30s with warming into the 60s tomorrow. Winds will be moderate this morning from the west, then pick up to moderately strong conditions afternoon. Tomorrow winds will switch coming from a southerly direction gaining in strength.



OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat *** good conditions for pollen release today but poor conditions for entrainment and transport. Warming conditions with light and variable to moderate winds but with a dense atmosphere will present a mix of good conditions for pollen release, yet poor conditions for entrainment and travel. Late afternoon building wind strength may overcome the denser atmospheric conditions to transport pollen downwind. Late January is usually the time that pollination in Juniperus ashei trees begins to wane, thus lower concentrations in the atmosphere, even under excellent conditions for dispersal. This period also signals the beginning of pollination of Juniperus virginiana a species that is somewhat less allergenic. In many cases the concentration of pollen in the atmosphere will remain significant but result in fewer symptoms as it represents a mix of the two species.

Trajectory weather:

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat *** favorable

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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