The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

SATURDAY / SUNDAY

 

Date Issued: 31 January 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Saturday, January 31/ Sunday, February 01 – TX/OK: Across the Texas-Oklahoma region today the weather will be warm with sunny skies and temperatures in the upper 60s to the low 70s. Winds will be from the southwest and gaining in intensity during the day today. Overnight temperatures will range from the mid 30s to the mid 40s with moderate southerly winds. Tomorrow conditions will cool somewhat as a cold front enters the region. In Oklahoma, high temperatures on Sunday will be in the 50s with moderate northerly winds and partly cloudy skies. Lows on Sunday night will be in the upper 20s and low 30s. In Texas, high temperatures on Sunday will be in the 60s and low 70s with partly cloudy conditions. Initially winds will be from the south but will gradually shift to moderate northerly winds as the front enters the region. There will be a chance of showers along the southern and eastern edge of the Plateau. Lows on Sunday night in Texas will range from the 30s to mid 40s.



Trajectory weather: Today, the air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move to the northeast. At the higher elevations the trajectories continue moving to the northeast, but the low elevation trajectories double back overnight as the cooler air from the north moves in. The trajectories show poor characteristics for entrainment and travel today. At the source area, there will be sunny skies and warm temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s this afternoon. Overnight lows will be in the low 40s. Sunday’s trajectories from the eastern side of the Plateau move to the northeast and then turn to the southeast, while those from the western area of the Plateau move to the east and southeast with less favorable characteristics for entrainment and travel. High temperatures at the source areas on Sunday will be in the 60s and low 70s with a 20% chance of showers in some areas. Lows Sunday night will be in the 30s to mid 40s.



OUTLOOK: *** Moderate to High Threat *** good conditions for pollen release today but mostly unfavorable conditions for entrainment and transport; mostly favorable conditions for release tomorrow and moderate conditions for downwind dispersal. Warm temperatures with sunny skies and moderate winds present good conditions for release today but with less than ideal conditions for downwind travel. Tomorrow, conditions will be mostly favorable for release with better conditions for entrainment. However, there is a chance of showers in the eastern and southern edge of the Plateau; this may reduce the risk of pollen release from those areas. We are also approaching the traditional end of the Juniperus ashei pollinating period thus the amount of pollen may be marginal. Late January is usually the time that pollination in Juniperus ashei trees begins to wane, thus lower concentrations in the atmosphere should be expected, even under excellent conditions for dispersal. This period also signals the beginning of pollination of Juniperus virginiana a species that is somewhat less allergenic. In many cases the concentration of all cedar pollen the atmosphere will remain significant but result in fewer symptoms as it represents a mix of the two species.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; San Angelo, TX.

AUSTIN - SATURDAY

JUNCTION - SATURDAY

SAN ANGELO - SATURDAY

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE - SATURDAY

AUSTIN - SUNDAY

JUNCTION - SUNDAY

SAN ANGELO - SUNDAY

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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