The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 2 February 2009

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday, February 02 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be warm today. Skies will be mostly sunny across the region today as well as tomorrow. In Oklahoma temperatures today will be in the mid 50s with light winds shifting from the north this morning to the south by evening. Tonight temperatures will be in the mid 20s with light and variable winds returning. Tomorrow will continue to be sunny with temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to the mid 50s. In Texas, sunny skies will prevail today and tomorrow. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s on the Plateau and into the lower 60s in the surrounding communities. Winds will be from the north early pivoting to the northeast becoming strongly from the northeast after noon. Tonight clear skies will occur across the region with colder temperatures ranging from just at freezing into the upper 20s at the higher elevations of the Plateau. High temperatures tomorrow will be about 10 to 15 degrees warmer than today’s readings. The Plateau is expected to be in the upper 60s and the surrounding communities into the 70s.


Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories show little movement during the afternoon and then move to the northeast this evening and then shift southeast. The trajectories show mixed characteristics for downwind entrainment and travel. At the source areas today there will be mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the mid 50s. There will be clear skies tonight, sunny again tomorrow and clear tomorrow night. High temperatures tomorrow will be in the mid 50s.


OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat *** mixed conditions for pollen release and for entrainment and transport. Cool conditions with light and variable wind with a dense atmosphere will present only moderate conditions for pollen release, entrainment and travel. We are approaching the traditional end of the Juniperus ashei pollinating period thus the amount of pollen may be marginal. Late January and early February is usually the time that pollination in Juniperus ashei trees begins to wane, thus lower concentrations in the atmosphere should be expected, even under excellent conditions for dispersal. This period also signals the beginning of pollination of Juniperus virginiana a species that is somewhat less allergenic. In many cases the concentration of all cedar pollen in the atmosphere will remain significant but result in fewer symptoms as it represents a mix of the two species. The weather during the 2008/2009 pollination season was unexpectedly mild and, therefore, the number of days with good pollen release potential has been high. This is the last forecast for the 2008/2009 Juniperus ashei pollination season! Please return to our site in December 2009.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Sulfur, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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