The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

THURSDAY / FRIDAY

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low / Moderate to High

Tulsa

Low / Moderate

St. Louis MO

Low

 

Date Issued: 31 December 2009


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Thurs and Fri, Dec 31 and Jan 1 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will continue to warm from the wet cold beginning of the week. Skies today will be mostly cloudy to the north in Oklahoma and northern Texas, partly cloudy across the Edwards Plateau, and mostly sunny in the communities surrounding the plateau. There remains a significant chance of rain and snow in Oklahoma and the Arbuckle Mountains this morning but warming tomorrow. Temperatures today will be in the low to mid 30s in central Oklahoma southward towards northern Texas. Temperatures will warm with the Dallas area expected to get close to 50 this afternoon. Further south across the Edwards Plateau temperatures will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. The edge communities of Austin and San Antonio are expected to be in the mid to upper 60s. Winds will be from north to northwest at moderate levels today building to strong conditions in the afternoon. Overnight temperatures will be in the 20s across Oklahoma and the southwestern and western portions of the Edwards Plateau. The remaining areas will be in the 30s. Winds will remain from the north to northwest at moderate to strong levels. Tomorrow the region will be sunny with warm conditions. Temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s to the north and in the mid to upper 50s across the rest of Texas with the edge communities in the upper 50s to 60. Winds from the northwest will switch during the day, coming from the south in the afternoon and overnight. Mostly clear skies will remain Friday night towards the north with partly cloudy skies over the Edward Plateau. Temperatures will be in the 30s.

Trajectory weather: partly cloudy skies will occur across Oklahoma today with sunny conditions tomorrow and clear skies tomorrow night. Temperatures will be in the mid to high 30s across Oklahoma today and much warmer temperatures in the upper 40s and 50s tomorrow. Precipitation, rain and snow, is forecast for the northern Texas and Oklahoma area today. Today and tonight winds will be from the northwest at moderate to strong levels. Tonight temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 20s. Friday, nice conditions will return to the area with temperatures in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Winds will be light and variable in the border area with stronger winds in central Oklahoma. Conditions will be poor for pollen release today but good tomorrow. Today the atmosphere will be light moving southward although little pollen release is expected. Tomorrow, the trajectories will move near the ground towards the north with light winds.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today; High threat tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and Good conditions tomorrow; Poor conditions for entrainment and transport today, Good conditions tomorrow. A low threat exists today with mostly cloudy skies, precipitation and strong wind speeds. Temperatures will be cold today barely getting into the mid to upper 30s. Overnight temperatures will drop into the 20s across the region. Winds will remain strong from the northwest. The temperatures and chance of precipitation makes for poor conditions for any pollen dispersal today. However, tomorrow the chance greatly improves with warming temperatures, clear skies, and drying conditions that result in a high threat with good conditions for pollen release as well as entrainment and travel.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

THURSDAY


FRIDAY



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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