The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

SATURDAY / SUNDAY

 

Date Issued: 2 January 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Sat and Sun, Jan 2 and 3 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be seasonally warm today with temperatures in the 30s and 40s across central Oklahoma, but in the mid to upper 50s across the Edwards Plateau and the surrounding communities to the southeast. Skies will be mostly cloudy to partly cloudy across Oklahoma today, mostly sunny across most of the Edwards Plateau and the areas of central Texas. The Edwards Plateau area will see partly cloudy skies this afternoon. Tonight skies will become partly cloudy region wide. During the day, today winds will be from the to northeast at the lower elevations, from Oklahoma to the edge communities. On the Edwards Plateau winds will be from the south. Wind strength today will be moderate from 5 to 15 miles per hour. Tonight temperatures will be in the 20s to the north and into the mid to upper 30s with areas on the western side of the Plateau into the upper 20s. Winds will be light and from the east tonight. Tomorrow, skies will be partly cloudy except for the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau where they will become partly sunny. Austin has a 20% chance of rain early and central to southern Oklahoma has a chance of snow flurries as well. Winds will be from the north at moderate levels on Sunday. Sunday night temperatures will cool by 5 to 10 degrees with most areas below or just above freezing. Winds will remain from the north to northeast and remain light at 5 to 10 miles an hour.

Trajectory weather: mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies will occur across Oklahoma today and tomorrow with cold temperatures entrenched across the region. Todays highs will be in the 30s in central Oklahoma and pushing into the 40s southward in the Arbuckle Mountains. Winds will remain from northeast today and tonight in central Oklahoma with light and variable conditions southward. Tonight there is a 50% chance of snow in central Oklahoma declining to a 20% chance towards the border with Texas. Tomorrow skies will be mostly cloudy with a chance of snow flurries and temperatures remaining in the 30s. Winds will remain from the north and light to light and variable. The atmosphere will be relatively stable maintaining its elevation downwind both today and tomorrow. Today, the trajectories move northward across central Oklahoma into the central Great Plains. The air is buoyant but cold conditions and cloudy skies will restrict pollination from the area today. However, much better conditions across Texas may move pollen from southern sources across the Oklahoma region today, but with the wind shift overnight little if any pollen is expected in the atmosphere on Sunday. With the addition of snow overnight and into tomorrow conditions for pollination will remain limited. Tomorrow trajectories move the atmosphere southward on northerly winds.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today; Low threat tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and Poor conditions tomorrow; Poor conditions for entrainment and transport today, Poor conditions tomorrow. Cloudy skies and cold conditions, along with light winds result in poor conditions for pollen release and poor conditions for entrainment and travel today and tomorrow. For these reasons there is a low threat from the Arbuckle tree populations today and tomorrow. However, winds from Texas, where conditions are much improved may bring atmospheric concentrations of pollen over the central to southern areas of Oklahoma today. Overnight as the winds shift, coming from the north, pollen entrained in the atmosphere will move back south out of the Oklahoma region.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

SATURDAY

SUNDAY

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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