The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

SATURDAY / SUNDAY

 

Date Issued: 2 January 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Sat and Sun, Jan 2 and 3 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be seasonally warm today with temperatures in the 30s and 40s across central Oklahoma, but in the mid to upper 50s across the Edwards Plateau and the surrounding communities to the southeast. Skies will be mostly cloudy to partly cloudy across Oklahoma today, mostly sunny across most of the Edwards Plateau and the areas of central Texas. The Edwards Plateau area will see partly cloudy skies this afternoon. Tonight skies will become partly cloudy region wide. During the day, today winds will be from the to northeast at the lower elevations, from Oklahoma to the edge communities. On the Edwards Plateau winds will be from the south. Wind strength today will be moderate from 5 to 15 miles per hour. Tonight temperatures will be in the 20s to the north and into the mid to upper 30s with areas on the western side of the Plateau into the upper 20s. Winds will be light and from the east tonight. Tomorrow, skies will be partly cloudy except for the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau where they will become partly sunny. Austin has a 20% chance of rain early and central to southern Oklahoma has a chance of snow flurries as well. Winds will be from the north at moderate levels on Sunday. Sunday night temperatures will cool by 5 to 10 degrees with most areas below or just above freezing. Winds will remain from the north to northeast and remain light at 5 to 10 miles an hour.

Trajectory weather: Mostly sunny skies this morning going towards partly cloudy skies over the Edwards Plateau this afternoon and tonight are expected with mostly cloudy skies on Sunday except in the edge communities. With these clouds temperatures will be seasonal and in the 50s today but will drop 5-8 degrees tomorrow as cooler air moves in from the north. Winds will be light to moderate relaxing overnight but switching from the east and south to pure easterly direction tonight. Tomorrow and tomorrow night winds will be from the north and northeast at light to moderate levels. Temperatures tomorrow night will be in the upper 20s across the Plateau and low 30s in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Trajectories from Texas move northward on southerly winds today and tonight but be turned over northern Texas and central Oklahoma late tonight and into tomorrow. Northerly breezes tomorrow will start to move the trajectories southward. The atmosphere is very buoyant in front of the colder atmosphere moving in and so presents very good conditions for entrainment and travel today and tomorrow The combination of clear skies and moderate winds along with warm seasonal temperatures should provide conditions for significant levels of pollen to occur in the region.

OUTLOOK: ***Very High Threat today; Very High threat tomorrow *** Very Goodconditions for pollen release today and Very Good conditions tomorrow;Good conditions for entrainment and transport today, Very Good conditions tomorrow. Sunny skies, moderate winds and seasonally warm and dry weather will result in very good conditions for pollen to be released from the trees today and tomorrow. Moderate winds aid in the drying and eventual dispersal of the pollen within the atmosphere. Winds today will be from the south and southeast moving the trajectories north and northwest towards central Oklahoma. As the winds switch from the north overnight and into tomorrow those trajectories will be turned back towards the east and then eventually southeasterly. Tomorrows trajectories will move towards the south directly. Very good conditions for release and a buoyant atmosphere everywhere across the Edwards Plateau suggests that significant levels of pollen will be in the atmosphere over the weekend. Moderate winds, however will not move entrained pollen significant distance but keep in the air above Texas and its neighboring states.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN - SATURDAY

JUNCTION - SATURDAY

SONORA - SATURDAY

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE - SATURDAY

AUSTIN - SUNDAY

JUNCTION - SUNDAY

SONORA - SUNDAY

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE - SUNDAY

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page