The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 4 January 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday, January 4 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be cool with a continued north wind and partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. In Oklahoma the winds will be from the north at moderate strength. Skies will be cloudy and temperatures will be in the upper 20s in the central portion of the state and mid 30s towards the Texas Border. In Texas skies will be partly sunny in north Texas, mostly sunny in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau, and partly cloudy across the plateau. Winds will be moderate from the north with temperatures mostly in the 40s region wide. Tonight, in Oklahoma temperatures will be in the teens to low twenties with winds light and variable. In Texas, temperatures will be in the 20s region wide and winds light from the north. Across the Plateau the winds will begin to shift overnight from the north to the southeast and south. Tomorrow partly cloudy conditions will occur in Oklahoma but Texas will see sunny skies. Temperatures north will be in the upper 30s and lower 40s, whereas in Texas temperatures will be im the 50s across the region. Winds will remain from the northeast in the surrounding communities and from the southeast to south and strong in the afternoon across the Plateau. Tuesday night will return to the 30s with moderate winds across Texas and partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Trajectory weather: Partly cloudy skies will occur across Oklahoma today, tonight, and tomorrow. Temperatures in central Oklahoma will be only in the upper 20s today and mid 30s tomorrow. In the Arbuckle Mountains highs will be in the mid 30s today and lower 40s tomorrow. Winds will be from the north across the region and moderate to light. Partly cloudy skies are expected tonight as temperatures dip into the teens and twenties. Skies will remain partly cloudy tomorrow as temperatures rise by ten degrees across the region. Today and tomorrow, the trajectories move southward across central Texas. The air appears very dense, moving along the ground, and with the cold temperatures no pollen release is expected.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today; Low threat tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and Poor conditions tomorrow; Poor conditions for entrainment and transport today, Poor conditions tomorrow. Cold conditions with moderate to light wind speeds and partly cloudy skies will occur near the Arbuckle Mountain population today. The atmosphere will be heavy not traveling any great distance. Pollen release is not expected today or tomorrow from the population and conditions for entrainment and travel will be poor. For these reasons the threat today and tomorrow is low and the chance of pollination, entrainment and travel is poor.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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