The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 4 January 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Monday, January 4 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be cool with a continued north wind and partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies. In Oklahoma the winds will be from the north at moderate strength. Skies will be cloudy and temperatures will be in the upper 20s in the central portion of the state and mid 30s towards the Texas Border. In Texas skies will be partly sunny in north Texas, mostly sunny in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau, and partly cloudy across the plateau. Winds will be moderate from the north with temperatures mostly in the 40s region wide. Tonight, in Oklahoma temperatures will be in the teens to low twenties with winds light and variable. In Texas, temperatures will be in the 20s region wide and winds light from the north. Across the Plateau the winds will begin to shift overnight from the north to the southeast and south. Tomorrow partly cloudy conditions will occur in Oklahoma but Texas will see sunny skies. Temperatures north will be in the upper 30s and lower 40s, whereas in Texas temperatures will be im the 50s across the region. Winds will remain from the northeast in the surrounding communities and from the southeast to south and strong in the afternoon across the Plateau. Tuesday night will return to the 30s with moderate winds across Texas and partly to mostly cloudy skies.

Trajectory weather: Mixed conditions will occur across Texas today with partly skies north and sunny skies surrounding the Edwards Plateau. On the plateau itself partly cloudy skies will occur. Temperatures will be in the 40s for most areas and winds will be moderate from the north. Tonight skies will clear and temperatures will fall below freezing region wide as winds slacken and continue from the north except on the Edwards Plateau where they will begin to switch from a more southerly direction. Tomorrow temperatures will rise by about 10 degrees with most areas barely reaching the 50s. Tomorrow, skies will be clear so surface heating may result in a greater chance for pollen release. Winds will remain stable if not sinking thus the conditions for entrainment and travel will be moderate compared to the poor conditions expected today.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today; Moderate tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and Poor conditions tomorrow; Poor conditions for entrainment and transport today, Poor conditions tomorrow. Cool conditions today with light winds along with partly cloudy skies will occur today across the area. Conditions are poor for pollen release. A heavy to stable atmosphere will occur with light winds for poor to moderate conditions for entrainment and travel. If partly cloudy skies remain little pollen is expected to be released, however if skies clear early heating may occur more release will occur. In that case some local dispersal may occur leading to spotty high concentrations.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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