The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 5 January 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 5– TX/OK: Across the region the weather will continue cool with winds from the south to southeast. In Oklahoma the winds will be light from the south. In central Oklahoma skies will remain cloudy whereas further south the skies will start to clear in the afternoon. Temperatures will only reach into the low to mid 30s across the region. Overnight temperatures will fall into the mid to lower 20s with light and variable winds still from the south. Skies will remain partly cloudy. In Texas, sunny skies will occur towards the north with the morning starting with partly cloudy skies across the Edwards Plateau, but those areas will clear in the morning to noon. Temperatures will be low 50s across the region with slightly warmer conditions to the west. On the Edwards Plateau winds will be light and from the east and northeast, except on the Edwards Plateau where they will be from the south beginning light but picking up to moderate levels during the afternoon. Overnight, winds will switch coming from the south at moderate levels. Skies will be partly cloudy and temperatures will be in the mid to lower 30s, region wide. Tomorrow temperatures will increase by 10 degrees, with winds remaining moderate from the south. There is a chance of rain in the areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Conditions will begin to deteriorate towards the late afternoon and evening as a significant cold front moves southward.

Trajectory weather: Mostly cloudy skies will occur across Oklahoma today, clearing to partly cloudy conditions, tonight and tomorrow morning. Tomorrow night mostly cloudy skies will return with a chance of snow as a cold front moves into the area.. Temperatures in central Oklahoma will be only in the mid 30s today and low to mid 40s tomorrow. In the Arbuckle Mountains highs will be in the mid 30s today and lower 40s tomorrow. Winds will be light and variable today but pick-up from the south later tonight and tomorrow. By Wednesday and Wednesday evening winds will be moderate with stronger gusts. Today and tomorrow, the trajectories move northward across central Oklahoma into the upper mid-west. The air appears stable, moving along the ground. With the cold temperatures no pollen release is expected.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today; Low threat tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and Poor conditions tomorrow; Poor conditions for entrainment and transport today, Poor conditions tomorrow. Cold conditions with moderate to light wind speeds and partly cloudy skies near the Arbuckle Mountain population today. Temperatures will warm slightly tomorrow but not to the level that will bring significant release from the population. The atmosphere will be stable and without significant pollen, entrainment and travel is not expected.. For these reasons the threat today and tomorrow is low and the chance of pollination, entrainment and travel is poor.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page