The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 5 January 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather:Tuesday, January 5– TX/OK: Across the region the weather will continue cool with winds from the south to southeast. In Oklahoma the winds will be light from the south. In central Oklahoma skies will remain cloudy whereas further south the skies will start to clear in the afternoon. Temperatures will only reach into the low to mid 30s across the region. Overnight temperatures will fall into the mid to lower 20s with light and variable winds still from the south. Skies will remain partly cloudy. In Texas, sunny skies will occur towards the north with the morning starting with partly cloudy skies across the Edwards Plateau, but those areas will clear in the morning to noon. Temperatures will be low 50s across the region with slightly warmer conditions to the west. On the Edwards Plateau winds will be light and from the east and northeast, except on the Edwards Plateau where they will be from the south beginning light but picking up to moderate levels during the afternoon. Overnight, winds will switch coming from the south at moderate levels. Skies will be partly cloudy and temperatures will be in the mid to lower 30s, region wide. Tomorrow temperatures will increase by 10 degrees, with winds remaining moderate from the south. There is a chance of rain in the areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Conditions will begin to deteriorate towards the late afternoon and evening as a significant cold front moves southward.

Trajectory weather: Mixed conditions will occur across Texas today with mostly sunny to sunny skies in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. On the Plateau, skies will begin partly cloudy and then start to clear by noon. Partly cloudy skies will return overnight and into tomorrow. Today temperatures will be in the low 50s cooling towards the north. Warmer conditions will occur towards the far west. Winds will be light from the east in the surrounding communities while on the Edwards Plateau winds will be moderate and increasingly gusty from the south. Tonight the easterly winds will turn, coming from the south. Overnight temperatures will be in the 30s across the region. Tomorrow temperatures will warm by 5 to 10 degrees with moderate winds maintaining themselves from the south and southeast. There is an increased chance of rain along the edge communities in front of an incoming slug of very cold atmosphere for the end of the week. Winds will remain relatively stable across the region. Temperatures above 50 will result in some release of pollen from the populations. This release will see moderate to good conditions for entrainment and travel towards the north. The surrounding communities will see the potential for significant levels today and especially tomorrow..

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today; High tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and Good conditions tomorrow; Moderate conditions for entrainment and transport today, Good conditions tomorrow. Temperatures today above 50 degrees with light winds and sunny skies will occur today across the area. Conditions are moderate for pollen release today and good tomorrow as temperatures rise by 5 to 10 degrees.. A stable atmosphere will occur with light winds for moderate conditions for entrainment and travel. Tomorrow wind speeds will rise but humidity will be moving into the area especially in the surrounding communities. Sunny skies will occur today but with light winds and cool conditions only moderate pollen release is expected. Because of today’s condition, some areas will see significant dispersal but the light winds will result in the entrained pollen remaining in the local areas.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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