The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Low

Austin

Low

San Antonio

Low

 

Date Issued: 6 January 2010


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 6– TX/OK: Across the region the weather will continue cool with changes beginning to signal the movement of significantly cold air and winter precipitation into the area tonight. Temperatures today will be in the 50s across Texas and the 40s in Oklahoma. Increasing humidity and increased wind strength will occur into the afternoon and tonight. Tonight skies are expected to be mostly cloudy region wide and a chance of rain, drizzle and eventually snow overnight with warmer conditions south versus north. In Texas, tonight’s lows are expected to be in the 20s on the Edwards Plateau, the low thirties in the surrounding communities and in the 20s and teens in northern Texas and on into Oklahoma. In the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau and northward there is a 20% to 30% chance of precipitation tonight. Winds will increase overnight from the south and southwest starting moderate but building strong and gusty conditions. Winds speeds tonight on the western sections of the Edwards Plateau may get to 20 to 25 miles sustained winds with gusts up towards 40 miles per hour. Tomorrow cold conditions will begin to arrive with temperatures across the area in the teens and twenties to the north and low thirties to the south. Winds will turn coming from the north and be moderate to strong. Thursday night conditions will continue to deteriorate with temperatures in the teens region wide and winds remaining moderate from the north.

Trajectory weather: Conditions today will begin to deteriorate ahead of a significant cold front moving into the region tomorrow and into the weekend. Temperatures today will get into the low 50s in many places and sunny skies to the west will be conducive to the release of pollen. Towards the east cloudy skies and cooler conditions, along with high humidity will restrict pollen release. On the Plateau, winds today will be from the south and southwest at moderate strength. Skies will return to mostly cloudy conditions tonight and humidity will rise as there is a slight chance of freezing rain and drizzile across the area. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 20s. In the communities surrounding the Plateau conditions tonight will be in the lower to mid 30s but with a 20% chance of precipitation starting as rain then to sleet and snow as temperatures cool close to freezing. Tonight winds will become strong starting from the south but shifting towards the west overnight. Tomorrow highs will only reach into the 30s with mostly cloudy skies and winds moderate to strong from the north. Tomorrow night skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with temperatures in the mid teens on the Edwards Plateau and low twenties in the surrounding communities. Winds will remain from the north but at moderate levels..

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today; Low threat tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and Poor conditions tomorrow; Poor conditions for entrainment and transport today, Poor conditions tomorrow. Temperatures today will be right around 50 degrees in areas with the best conditions. Cooler weather with cloudy skies will retard the trees from pollinating in all areas but especially for the populations in the eastern areas of the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be moderate today building tonight towards strong conditions, switching from the south to coming from the north tomorrow and tomorrow night. Record cold weather is moving into the region. Conditions are moderate for pollen release in the west today but will deteriorate significantly towards the weekend. For all of the populations tonight and tomorrow A stable atmosphere will occur with light winds early, building to moderate then strong conditions overnightl. Partly cloudy skies to the west today with moderate winds butcool conditions will result in only minor amounts of release is in the western areas of the Edwards Plateau. To the east, conditions are worse and no significant pollination is expected. With little pollen in the atmosphere conditions for entrainment and travel are of minor importance.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SONORA



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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