The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Dallas/Fort Worth |
Low |
Austin |
Low |
San Antonio |
Low |
Date Issued: 6 January 2010
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas
Regional Weather:
Wednesday, January 6– TX/OK:
Across the region the weather will continue cool with changes beginning to signal the movement of significantly
cold air and winter precipitation into the area tonight. Temperatures today will be in the 50s across Texas and
the 40s in Oklahoma. Increasing humidity and increased wind strength will occur into the afternoon and tonight.
Tonight skies are expected to be mostly cloudy region wide and a chance of rain, drizzle and eventually snow overnight
with warmer conditions south versus north. In Texas, tonight’s lows are expected to be in the 20s on the Edwards
Plateau, the low thirties in the surrounding communities and in the 20s and teens in northern Texas and on into
Oklahoma. In the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau and northward there is a 20% to 30% chance of precipitation
tonight. Winds will increase overnight from the south and southwest starting moderate but building strong and
gusty conditions. Winds speeds tonight on the western sections of the Edwards Plateau may get to 20 to 25 miles
sustained winds with gusts up towards 40 miles per hour. Tomorrow cold conditions will begin to arrive with temperatures
across the area in the teens and twenties to the north and low thirties to the south. Winds will turn coming from
the north and be moderate to strong. Thursday night conditions will continue to deteriorate with temperatures
in the teens region wide and winds remaining moderate from the north.
Trajectory weather: Conditions
today will begin to deteriorate ahead of a significant cold front moving into the region tomorrow and into the
weekend. Temperatures today will get into the low 50s in many places and sunny skies to the west will be conducive
to the release of pollen. Towards the east cloudy skies and cooler conditions, along with high humidity will restrict
pollen release. On the Plateau, winds today will be from the south and southwest at moderate strength. Skies
will return to mostly cloudy conditions tonight and humidity will rise as there is a slight chance of freezing
rain and drizzile across the area. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 20s. In the communities surrounding
the Plateau conditions tonight will be in the lower to mid 30s but with a 20% chance of precipitation starting
as rain then to sleet and snow as temperatures cool close to freezing. Tonight winds will become strong starting
from the south but shifting towards the west overnight. Tomorrow highs will only reach into the 30s with mostly
cloudy skies and winds moderate to strong from the north. Tomorrow night skies will be partly to mostly cloudy
with temperatures in the mid teens on the Edwards Plateau and low twenties in the surrounding communities. Winds
will remain from the north but at moderate levels..
OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today; Low threat tomorrow ***
Poor conditions for pollen release today and Poor conditions tomorrow; Poor conditions for entrainment and transport
today, Poor conditions tomorrow. Temperatures today will
be right around 50 degrees in areas with the best conditions. Cooler weather with cloudy skies will retard the
trees from pollinating in all areas but especially for the populations in the eastern areas of the Edwards Plateau.
Winds will be moderate today building tonight towards strong conditions, switching from the south to coming from
the north tomorrow and tomorrow night. Record cold weather is moving into the region. Conditions are moderate
for pollen release in the west today but will deteriorate significantly towards the weekend. For all of the populations
tonight and tomorrow A stable atmosphere will occur with light winds early, building to moderate then strong conditions
overnightl. Partly cloudy skies to the west today with moderate winds butcool conditions will result in only minor
amounts of release is in the western areas of the Edwards Plateau. To the east, conditions are worse and no significant
pollination is expected. With little pollen in the atmosphere conditions for entrainment and travel are of minor
importance.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by *
on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.
AUSTIN
JUNCTION
SONORA
EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin (Faculty of Biological
Science, The
University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter
K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno,
2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of
released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated
time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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