The University of Tulsa
Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast
SATURDAY / SUNDAY
Metropolitan Area |
Exposure Risk |
Dallas/Fort Worth |
Low / Moderate |
Austin |
Low / Moderate |
San Antonio |
Low / Moderate |
Date Issued: 9 January 2010
Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas
Regional Weather: Saturday,
January 09 – TX/OK:
Across the region the weather will continue cold but will start to warm with high temperatures in the 20s and 30s
north and the 40s across the Texas region today. Tomorrow temperatures will warm by at least 10 degrees with highs
expected in the upper 30s and lower 40s north and into the low to 50s in the warmer areas of Texas. The Edwards
Plateau is expected to be in the upper 40s to 50. Across the region skies will be sunny today, mostly clear to
clear tonight, and Sunny with clear skies tomorrow and tomorrow night. Tonight temperatures will be in the teens
region wide. Tomorrow night low temperatures will warm into the 20s as warming begins from the cold conditions
of this week. Today, winds will be light and variable across Oklahoma. In northern Texas and in the edge communities
around the Edwards Plateau winds will be light and from the northeast. The Edwards Plateau itself will see moderate
winds from the south and southeast. Winds will remain from the same direction tonight at light to moderate conditions.
Tomorrow morning winds start light but build to moderate conditions in the afternoon, then slacken overnight as
it shifts coming from the south region wide.
Trajectory weather:
Sunny and clear today and tomorrow with cold conditions beginning to warm as the bitter cold weather moves out
of the region. Temperatures today will remain in the mid to low 40s for the high and start to approach the 50s
tomorrow. Overnight cold clear weather will return with temperatures in the teens, then Sunday night into the
20s. Winds will be from the northeast and light today except on the Edwards Plateau where they will be from the
south and moderate. Similar conditions will continue tonight across the region and during the beginning of tomorrow.
Tomorrow afternoon winds will shift region wide, coming from the south and increase to moderately strong. Gusts
are expected above 20 mile per hour. Sunday night winds will calm back to moderate conditions. The atmosphere
is buoyant towards the west and stable eastward. The cold temperatures and light winds until Sunday afternoon
suggests little pollen release, entrainment and travel. Warming conditions may result in pollen in the atmosphere
tomorrow, especially with increased wind strengths. The winds will carry anything entrained northwards towards
central and eastern Oklahoma increasing the chance of dispersal on Sunday.
OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today; Moderate threat tomorrow *** Poor conditions
for pollen release today and Moderate conditions tomorrow; Poor conditions for entrainment and transport today,
Moderate conditions tomorrow. Sunny skies, light winds and
cold conditions will result in poor conditions for pollen to be released from the trees today. Marginal conditions
for pollen release tomorrow coupled with strong winds in the afternoon and sunny skies to warm the trees will result
in a moderate threat. Conditions for entrainment and travel will also be moderate as the atmosphere is relatively
stable across the region. Trajectories today initially move southward then are turned northward across northern
Texas on to central and eastern Oklahoma. Tomorrow, winds will move northward essentially along the same path
as will occur later today and tonight. The trees across the region have loaded cones waiting for the right conditions
to release their pollen. However, on Sunday marginal conditions for release and a stable atmosphere suggests that
moderate levels of pollen will be in the atmosphere. As temperatures warm into next week greater amounts of pollen
are expected.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by *
on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.
AUSTIN - SATURDAY
JUNCTION - SATURDAY
SONORA - SATURDAY
EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE - SATURDAY
AUSTIN - SUNDAY
JUNCTION - SUNDAY
SONORA - SUNDAY
Prepared by: Estelle
Levetin (Faculty of Biological
Science, The
University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter
K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno,
2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of
released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated
time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.
Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu
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