The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 11 January 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday, January 11 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be warming from last week's cold snap. Today, skies will be sunny in the north with some clouds to the south but mostly to partly sunny. Temperatures in the north will be in the upper 40s to the low 50s and across the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities in the mid to lower 50s. Winds will begin moderate today from the south but continue to diminish into the evening dropping to light levels. Tonight skies will be partly cloudy to the south becoming mostly cloudy across the Edwards Plateau. Southern Oklahoma and northern Texas will remain clear. Temperatures will be in the low to upper 20s. Temperatures across the Edwards Plateau tonight will also be in the upper 20s. In the surrounding communities temperatures will be in the lower 30s north and upper 30s south. Tomorrow, skies will continue to be sunny in Oklahoma and northern Texas. The Edwards Plateau will be mostly to partly cloudy. Temperatures will be similar with the northern populations in the upper 40s and 50s. Across the southern areas, the Plateau and its surrounding community will be in the upper 50s. Winds will remain from the south at light levels over the Plateau but will shift from the north to northeast in the surrounding communities and in northern Texas. Tomorrow night the skies will continue to be clear north and partly cloudy to cloudy south. Low temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 30s and lower 40s. In Oklahoma low temperatures will be in the upper 20s. Light northeast winds will continue in the north overnight from the northeast in the surrounding communities and in northern Texas. Across the Edwards Plateau winds will be moderate from the south.

Trajectory weather: Sunny skies today and tomorrow will occur across Oklahoma. Temperatures in central Oklahoma will be in the upper 40s to low 50s today and only reaching the upper 40s tomorrow. In the Arbuckle Mountains highs will be in the mid low 50s. Winds today will be from the west and southwest starting at moderate levels this morning but relaxing to light and variable conditions tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night. Partly cloudy skies are expected tonight as temperatures dip into the mid to lower twenties. Skies will clear tomorrow as temperatures remain in the 40s. Clear skies are expected tomorrow night with low temperatures in the upper 20s. The air appears stable, moving along the ground. With warmer temperatures today pollen release is expected and will flow southward across northern Texas. Tomorrow cooler conditions may restrict some pollen release but with the cones ripe and fully loaded local distribution of pollen is expected. The dropping wind strength will mean that released pollen will be deposited closer to the source versus long distance transport.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today; Moderate threat tomorrow ***Good conditions for pollen release today and Moderate conditions tomorrow;Good conditions for entrainment and transport today, Moderate conditions tomorrow. Warming conditions with moderate to light wind speeds but sunny skies will occur near the Arbuckle Mountain population today. The trees are ripe and the cones are loaded waiting for dispersal, thus a high threat exists today. The atmosphere will be stable and winds will slacken towards the afternoon and evening thus entrained pollen will be more likely to be deposited into tonight. Tomorrow temperatures will be cooler and winds will be lilght and variable, thus local dissemination will occur but long-distance travel is not expected. For these reasons moderate conditions are expected for release, entrainment and travel.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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