The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Moderate

Austin

High

San Antonio

High

 

Date Issued: 11 January 2010


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather:Monday, January 11 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be warming from last week's cold snap. Today, skies will be sunny in the north with some clouds to the south but mostly to partly sunny. Temperatures in the north will be in the upper 40s to the low 50s and across the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities in the mid to lower 50s. Winds will begin moderate today from the south but continue to diminish into the evening dropping to light levels. Tonight skies will be partly cloudy to the south becoming mostly cloudy across the Edwards Plateau. Southern Oklahoma and northern Texas will remain clear. Temperatures will be in the low to upper 20s. Temperatures across the Edwards Plateau tonight will also be in the upper 20s. In the surrounding communities temperatures will be in the lower 30s north and upper 30s south. Tomorrow, skies will continue to be sunny in Oklahoma and northern Texas. The Edwards Plateau will be mostly to partly cloudy. Temperatures will be similar with the northern populations in the upper 40s and 50s. Across the southern areas, the Plateau and its surrounding community will be in the upper 50s. Winds will remain from the south at light levels over the Plateau but will shift from the north to northeast in the surrounding communities and in northern Texas. Tomorrow night the skies will continue to be clear north and partly cloudy to cloudy south. Low temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 30s and lower 40s. In Oklahoma low temperatures will be in the upper 20s. Light northeast winds will continue in the north overnight from the northeast in the surrounding communities and in northern Texas. Across the Edwards Plateau winds will be moderate from the south.

Trajectory weather:
Sunny skies will occur across Texas today except the central most area of the Edwards Plateau around Junction where partly to mostly cloudy skies are called for. Winds will be moderate from the south during the day then begin to decline towards the evening. Temperatures today will be in the mid to lower 50s across the region. Tonight skies will cloud up beginning as partly cloudy skies to mostly cloudy conditions. Winds will decrease to light conditions coming from the south. Tomorrow cloudy conditions will remain across central Texas but temperatures will warm into the upper 50s. In the surrounding communities winds will be moderate strength from the north and northeast, but light winds from the south will occur across the Edwards Plateau. Conditions will be maintained over tomorrow night with temperatures in the 30s to 40s from north to south and in the mid 30s across the Edwards Plateau. Today and tonight the atmosphere will begin stable with it becoming heavier overnight. Wind trajectories will travel near the surface with little change in elevation.

OUTLOOK: ***
High Threat today;Very High tomorrow *** Good conditions for pollen release today and Good conditions tomorrow; Moderate conditions for entrainment and transport today, Good conditions tomorrow.
Sunny to partly sunny conditions and warming temperatures today and tomorrow along with cones that are ripe and ready to disseminate results in a high threat today. Tomorrow temperatures are expected to be in the upper 50s across the population thus a very high threat exists. Winds will be moderate today but decrease towards the evening to light conditions. Good conditions for entrainment will exist, but travel will be local to regional rather than any great distances. Expect significant amounts of pollen in the atmosphere today and tomorrow, especially in areas where local populations of Juniperus ashei grow.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.


AUSTIN



JUNCTION



SONORA



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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