The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 12 January 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 12 – TX/OK: Sunny skies will prevail to the north today with increasing clouds southward over the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. Temperatures will continue to climb from the frigid conditions last week and across Texas they will be in the mid to upper 50s. Oklahoma will remain in the 40s in the central and northern region but in the low 50s near the border with Texas. Winds will be light and variable in Oklahoma, and from the north in northern Texas and the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. These winds will be light but shift coming from the east during the afternoon. On the Edwards Plateau, the eastern communities will see light easterly winds whereas towards the west winds will come from the southeast. Overnight skies will remain clear to the north but mostly cloudy to cloudy across central Texas. Low temperatures will be in the upper 30s to just above freezing across the region with the coldest temperatures north and warmer conditions south. Winds will remain light in southern Oklahoma and northern Texas as well as in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be from the East. On the Edwards Plateau winds will increase to moderate levels coming from the south. Tomorrow partly cloudy to cloudy skies will result in a 20% chance of showers in the surrounding communities of Austin and San Antonio as well as in Junction Texas. Temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 50s. Winds will be moderate from the south. Tomorrow night will have mostly cloudy skies as the precipitation spreads. Low temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 40s and low 50s with moderate winds continuing to blow from the south.

Trajectory weather: Sunny skies will occur across central and southern Oklahoma today with clear conditions tonight and partly cloudy skies tomorrow morning. Tomorrow night mostly cloudy skies will return. Temperatures will be in the lower 50s along the border today falling towards the 40s in central Oklahoma. Winds will be light and variable. Tonight temperatures will fall into the lower 30s , flirting with the freezing point, with light and variable winds maintained along the border region. In central Oklahoma winds will pick up from the south at moderate levels. Wednesday temperatures will return to the mid 50s with moderate southerly winds and partly cloudy skies. Wednesday night mostly cloudy skies are expected with temperatures in the lower 40s and moderate southerly winds. Across the region, the air appears stable, moving along the ground. Warming temperatures and sunny skies today should lead to pollen release. However, light winds and a stable atmosphere will result in moderate conditions for entrainment and travel from the Oklahoma populations. Starting tonight pollen from Texas will start moving northward and unless processes cleanse the atmosphere will begin to impact communities in Oklahoma..

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today; High threat tomorrow ***Good conditions for pollen release today and Good conditions tomorrow;Moderate conditions for entrainment and transport today, Good conditions tomorrow. Warm conditions will occur with light and variable wind speeds and sunny skies near the Arbuckle Mountain population today. Temperatures warm into the mid 50s today and tomorrow. Conditions will be good for dissemination today and tomorrow but today light and variable winds should restrict its entrainment and travel. Tomorrow conditions will build with stronger winds and temperatures in the mid 50s. To the south moisture will be moving in potentially restricting some pollen rain and washing entrained pollen onto the ground. Because of these conditions, moderate threat exists today and a high threat will occur tomorrow.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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