The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 12 January 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 12 – TX/OK: Sunny skies will prevail to the north today with increasing clouds southward over the Edwards Plateau and in the surrounding communities. Temperatures will continue to climb from the frigid conditions last week and across Texas they will be in the mid to upper 50s. Oklahoma will remain in the 40s in the central and northern region but in the low 50s near the border with Texas. Winds will be light and variable in Oklahoma, and from the north in northern Texas and the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. These winds will be light but shift coming from the east during the afternoon. On the Edwards Plateau, the eastern communities will see light easterly winds whereas towards the west winds will come from the southeast. Overnight skies will remain clear to the north but mostly cloudy to cloudy across central Texas. Low temperatures will be in the upper 30s to just above freezing across the region with the coldest temperatures north and warmer conditions south. Winds will remain light in southern Oklahoma and northern Texas as well as in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Winds will be from the East. On the Edwards Plateau winds will increase to moderate levels coming from the south. Tomorrow partly cloudy to cloudy skies will result in a 20% chance of showers in the surrounding communities of Austin and San Antonio as well as in Junction Texas. Temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 50s. Winds will be moderate from the south. Tomorrow night will have mostly cloudy skies as the precipitation spreads. Low temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 40s and low 50s with moderate winds continuing to blow from the south.

Trajectory weather: Conditions today will continue seasonal with temperatures in the mid to upper 50s across Texas. Winds will be light to moderate from the north initially then turning from the east. On the Edwards Plateau the northerly breezes will switch early coming from the east then eventually from the southeast. Tonight low temperatures will return to the 30s but should stay above freezing region wide. The southernmost areas may only dip into the low 40s. Winds will continue to be light from the east in the surrounding communities and moderate from the south on the Edwards Plateau itself. Wednesday will see moisture begin to move in with Austin, San Antonio and Junction all having a 20% chance of showers with cloudy skies over the region. Temperatures will remain seasonal with reading in the mid to upper 50s across the area. Winds will pick up to moderate levels from the south. Wednesday night cloudy conditions and rain (20% to 50% chance) will occur across the region. Low temperatures will remain in the 40s and 50s. Winds will remain moderate from the south.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today; Moderate threat tomorrow ***Good conditions for pollen release today and Moderate conditions tomorrow; Good conditions for entrainment and transport today, Moderate conditions tomorrow. Temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 50s degrees with light to moderate winds beginning from the north then shifting from the east. Partly sunny skies will occur to the north and along the eastern edge of the Edwards Plateau. Elsewhere partly to mostly cloudy skies will occur. Warm conditions along with ripe cones that are ready to disseminate their pollen will result in the high threat today. Pollen entrainment will be good today although the winds are relatively light. Pollen entrained in the atmosphere will move clockwise from their release point eventually heading northward on southerly winds tonight and tomorrow. Areas towards the west will move more directly north today because the winds have already shifted. Tomorrow, increasing humidity but with increasing wind strength will continue to get pollen into the atmosphere although good conditions for release are deteriorating as rain moves in tomorrow night.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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