The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 13 January 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 13 TX/OK: Wednesday, January 13– TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be seasonal but with an increasing chance of rain showers today, tonight and tomorrow. Temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 50s across Texas and in the low 50s in Oklahoma. Increasing humidity and mostly cloudy to cloudy skies across the region will be accompanied the increasing chance of precipitation. Areas on the Edwards Plateau and in the areas surrounding the Plateau will have a 20-30% chance of rain. Winds will be moderate and from the south. In Oklahoma partly to mostly cloudy skies will occur today with moderate to strong winds from the south. Tonight, the chance of rain increases across Texas with temperatures in the mid to low 40s. Winds will continue to be moderate from the south . Similar conditions will occur in Oklahoma but without the chance of rain. On Thursday, conditions will continue to deteriorate with the chance of rain increasing 50% to70%. Winds will start to shift towards the southeast across the Edwards Plateau, and be from the east in the communities surrounding the Plateau. Winds will continue to be moderate. In Oklahoma the chance of precipitation increases to 20 to 30% with temperatures in the low 50s. Thursday night lows continue in the 40s and 50s with the chance of showers and thunderstorms at 70% to 90% across the region. Winds will remain moderate but shifting coming from the northeast.

Trajectory weather: Mostly cloudy skies, seasonal temperatures in the 50s and moderate winds from the south will occur across Oklahoma today. Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies are in the forecast for tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 40s with moderate winds from the south. Tomorrow and tomorrow night the chance or precipitation increases as temperatures return to the 50s during the day and the 40s to mid 30s tomorrow night. Winds will remain from the south but decrease in strength ending tomorrow night as light and variable. The air appears stable and moves northward through central Oklahoma, across eastern Kansas and west central Missouri. Seasonal temperatures, but with cloudy skies and higher humidity is usually not great conditions for pollen release. However, it is some of the better conditions recently so the ripe cones should release pollen into the atmosphere today, but be more restrained tomorrow with the chance of precipitation

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today; Low threat tomorrow ***Moderate conditions for pollen release today and Poor conditions tomorrow; Moderate conditions for entrainment and transport today, Poor conditions tomorrow. Warm conditions with moderate wind speeds will occur today and tomorrow. However, partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies near the Arbuckle Mountain population along with an increasing chance of precipitation is expected today and tomorrow. Conditions will be moderate for release today, however we should be near the height of the season for cone ripening thus there could be a significant pulse of pollen into the atmosphere. The atmosphere will be stable but wind strength will be moderate and if significant pollen is release, entrainment and travel northward will be signifincant. For these reasons the threat today is moderate but tomorrow is reduced because of the chance of precipitation. The chance of entrainment and travel is moderate today. If pollen gets into the atmosphere it could travel significant distances..

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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