The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 13 January 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 13 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be seasonal but with an increasing chance of rain showers today, tonight and tomorrow. Temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 50s across Texas and in the low 50s in Oklahoma. Increasing humidity and mostly cloudy to cloudy skies across the region will be accompanied the increasing chance of precipitation. Areas on the Edwards Plateau and in the areas surrounding the Plateau will have a 20-30% chance of rain. Winds will be moderate and from the south. In Oklahoma partly to mostly cloudy skies will occur today with moderate to strong winds from the south. Tonight, the chance of rain increases across Texas with temperatures in the mid to low 40s. Winds will continue to be moderate from the south . Similar conditions will occur in Oklahoma but without the chance of rain. On Thursday, conditions will continue to deteriorate with the chance of rain increasing 50% to70%. Winds will start to shift towards the southeast across the Edwards Plateau, and be from the east in the communities surrounding the Plateau. Winds will continue to be moderate. In Oklahoma the chance of precipitation increases to 20 to 30% with temperatures in the low 50s. Thursday night lows continue in the 40s and 50s with the chance of showers and thunderstorms at 70% to 90% across the region. Winds will remain moderate but shifting coming from the northeast.

Trajectory weather: Conditions today will begin to deteriorate as humidity and the chance of rain increases towards tomorrow night. Temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 50s. San Antonio is expected to get close to 60 today. Skies will be cloudy to mostly cloudy across the region. Winds will be moderate from the south. Similar conditions will occur on the Edwards Plateau with an increasing chance of precipitation. Low temperatures tonight will be in the 40s but with an increasing chance of showers and humid conditions overall. Tomorrows high temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 50s but the chance of precipitation increases to 50% to 70% across the region. Winds will remain moderate but shift towards the southeast. Then Thursday night conditions should be wet with showers and thunderstorms across the region. The chance of rain will vary from 70% to 90%. Winds will be moderate from the northeast.

OUTLOOK: *** Moderate Threat today; Low threat tomorrow ***Moderate conditions for pollen release today and Poor conditions tomorrow; Moderate conditions for entrainment and transport today, Poor conditions tomorrow. Temperatures today will be in the 50s with increasing humidity and a 20% chance of precipitation. Skies will be cloudy to mostly cloudy. With the increased chance of rain in the area, pollen in the atmosphere will be washed out of the atmosphere, thus cleansing the air. However, in areas without precipitation may see dispersal from the ripe cones on the trees. Because of these mixed conditions a moderate threat is forecast for today. The increasing chance of precipitation will lower the threat tonight and tomorrow. Winds will be moderate today, tomorrow and Thursday from the south. The atmosphere is stable but with the increased wind speeds entrainment should occur and move pollen northward across north central Texas, into Oklahoma and towards the northeast.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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