The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 14 January 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 14 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be seasonally warm but with high humidity and cloudy skies. Beginning today an increasing chance of showers will occur from south to north. In Oklahoma temperatures will be in the low 50s with winds from the south at 10 miles per hour. There is a 20% chance of precipitation in southern Oklahoma. In Texas temperatures till be in the 60s in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau where temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s. The edge communities will have moderate southeast winds with a 60% chance of precipitation today. On the Plateau winds will be from the southeast and moderate with a 50% chance of precipitation. Tonight temperatures will drop into the 30s in Oklahoma but will be in the upper 40s and lower 50s across Texas. Winds will switch from the southeast to a northeast direction and be lilght to moderate. The chance of precipitation increases region wide with the edge communities at 100% and the Edwards Plateau between 70% and 90% chance of precipitation. Friday will continue to be cloudy with rain across the region. Temperatures will cool into the low to mid 50s and winds will be moderate from the northeast. Wet conditions will occur region wide then start to tail off Friday night into Saturday.

Trajectory weather: Cloudy skies, with temperatures in the 50s and moderate winds from the south will occur across Oklahoma today, but with an increasing chance of precipitation and high humidity. There is a 20% chance of rain in southern Oklahoma that builds overnight to 50% chance. Rain will be developing today to the south over most of Texas. Tonight temperatures will be in the mid to upper thirties, then back to the mid 40s to lower 50s tomorrow. The chance of precipitation increases from 20% today to 50% tonight and 40% tomorrow. Winds will begin today from the south then be light and variable overnight and switch on Friday to a north and northeast direction. Wind strength will be light to moderate. Friday night temperatures will return to the mid 30s. Today, the surface trajectories move initially northward then turn sharply southward as the winds switch tomorrow. The air moves at ground level initially then becomes more buoyant as it encounters low pressure moving across the region. Because of moist conditions and rain throughout the region no pollen release is expected. Any pollen that does get into the atmosphere should be washed out by the higher humidities.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today; Low threat tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and Poor conditions tomorrow; Poor conditions for entrainment and transport today, Poor conditions tomorrow. Warm temperatures today, tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night would be good for pollen release, but high humidity and precipitation is expected across the region over the next two days. No pollen release is expected because of the wet weather conditions. Winds will be light increasing to moderate conditions tomorrow. The atmosphere will begin relatively stable today but as low pressure moves through the area it will become more buoyant. The high humidity and rain in the region should wash out any pollen that might get into the atmosphere. With no pollen expected to be released to the atmosphere conditions for entrainment and travel is of minor importance.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page