The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 15 January 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Friday, January 15 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will be wet as moisture is pumped northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Cloudy skies will dominate. Temperatures will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s north and lower to mid 50s across Texas. Winds will be from the north to northeast, with moderate conditions ranging from 10 to 20 miles per hour across the region. To the north in Oklahoma there is a 40% chance of precipitation in the area with the Juniperus ashei tree population. In Texas the chance of precipitation increases with most areas off of the Plateau at 100% chance. On the Plateau the chance of precipitation ranges from 70% in the west to 90% in Junction and Sonora. Tonight cloudy conditions will continue with showers tapering off first on the Edwards Plateau then starting in the surrounding communities. The Plateau will see the chance of precipitation drop to 50% in San Angelo and Sonora with Junction maintaining 70%. In the surrounding communities of Austin and San Antonio a 90% chance of precipitation will remain. Tomorrow cloudy skies initially will eventually give way to partly sunny conditions in the edge communities and partly cloudy conditions over the plateau. Temperatures will warm into the upper 50s with San Antonio expecting to reach 60. The chance of rain will dissipate with the clearing skies although a 20% to 30% chance exists in the morning in most areas. Winds will calm to light conditions from the northwest. Tomorrow night temperatures will be in the lower to mid 30s to the north and upper 30s to low 40s across Texas. Winds will be light from the south and southwest across the Plateau and surrounding communities. In northern Texas and across Oklahoma winds will be light and variable.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories across the Plateau move to the southwest over southwest Texas and into Mexico. Conditions today will continue to be wet with moderate winds from the north to northeast. Skies will be cloudy with significant moisture expected. Temperatures will be in the mid to lower 50s across the region. The chance of precipitation will remain overnight but decrease tomorrow as skies begin to clear. Low temperatures are expected in the lower 40s with moderate winds from the north. Saturday will see cloudy to mostly cloudy skies clearing to partly sunny and partly cloudy conditions. Temperatures will warm. There will be a slight chance of showers in the morning. Winds will be out of the northwest maintaining light to moderate conditions. Saturday night the skies will continue to clear with partly cloudy conditions in most areas. Winds will be light and variable region wide. The clear skies and calm conditions will result in low temperatures in the 30s in most places.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today; Moderate threat tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today; Moderate conditions tomorrow; Poor conditions for entrainment and transport today, Moderate conditions tomorrow.Seasonal temperatures today, tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night but a significant chance of precipitation today, tonight and tomorrow morning will result in little pollen being shed, as well as poor conditions for entrainment and travel. Tomorrow afternoon warm temperatures partly sunny skies may dry out the trees thus allowing pollen release. For those reasons, along with the fact that we are in the middle of the traditionally heaviest pollination period results in a moderate threat tomorrow after the rains ceases. If pollen is released it will flow towards the southwest on very buoyant atmospheric conditions.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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