The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

SATURDAY / SUNDAY

 

Date Issued: 16 January 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Sat and Sun, January 16 and 17 – TX/OK: The region will see a shift from the recent rainy condition over the next couple of days. In Oklahoma, the rain will gradually end this afternoon. Temperatures will range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s with light winds from the north, northeast. Overnight lows will be in the low 30s. On Sunday, skies will be clear to partly cloudy with winds shifting to southerly and southwesterly. Winds will be light and afternoon temperatures will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Sunday night temperatures will be in the upper 30s. Rain in Texas will be clearing out this morning leaving partly cloudy skies with light to moderate northerly winds. Daytime highs today will be in the mid to upper 50s in central Texas. Overnight lows will range from the low 30s to the low 40s with winds shifting around during the night. On Sunday, temperatures in central Texas will warm into the 60s with partly cloudy skies and light to moderate southerly winds. Sunday night temperatures will range from the upper 30s to the upper 40s.

Trajectory weather: Today the air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the south into north Texas this afternoon and evening and then circle around back towards southeast Oklahoma as the winds gradually change over the next 24 hours. Conditions at the source area today are overcast with temperatures in the upper 40s and high humidity. Overall these are poor conditions for pollen release. Temperatures will drop into the 30s tonight and then warm into the 60s tomorrow providing better conditions for pollen release. Air mass trajectories on Sunday move to the north over central Oklahoma. Winds will be light to moderate tomorrow and the atmosphere relatively stable.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today, Moderate to High Threat tomorrow *** poor conditions for pollen release today and poor conditions for entrainment and transport. Better conditions for pollen release tomorrow with only moderate conditions for downwind transport. Temperatures will just barely reach the favorable range today but with high humidity the conditions are poor for pollen release. The chance of heightened levels tomorrow is more likely. Local dispersal should occur leading to spotty concentrations. Conditions for downwind dispersal are moderate with light winds and a stable atmosphere.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

SATURDAY

SUNDAY

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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