The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

SATURDAY / SUNDAY

 

Date Issued: 16 January 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Sat and Sun, January 16 and 17 – TX/OK: The region will see a shift from the recent rainy condition for the next couple of days. Rain in Texas will be clearing out this morning leaving partly cloudy skies with light to moderate northerly winds. Daytime highs today will be in the mid to upper 50s in central Texas. Overnight lows will range from the low 30s to the low 40s with winds shifting around during the night. On Sunday, temperatures in central Texas will warm into the 60s with partly cloudy skies and light to moderate southerly winds. Sunday night temperatures will range from the upper 30s to the upper 40s. In Oklahoma the rain will gradually end this afternoon. Temperatures will range from the mid 40s to the mid 50s with light winds from the north, northeast. Overnight lows will be in the low 30s. On Sunday, skies will be clear to partly cloudy with winds shifting to southerly and southwesterly. Winds will be light and afternoon temperatures will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Sunday night temperatures will be in the upper 30s.

Trajectory weather: Today, the trajectories from the Edwards Plateau move to the south and then circle back around to the north as the winds shift overnight. At the source areas across the Plateau, temperatures will be in the 50s with light northerly winds. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy and the humidity will be high following yesterday's rainfall resulting in poor to fair conditions for pollen release and transport. Tomorrow the air mass trajectories move to the north on light to moderate southerly winds and stable atmosphere. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s with partly cloud skies and lower humidity. Conditions for pollen release will improve tomorrow across areas of the Plateau as drying occurs.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today / High Threat tomorrow *** marginal conditions for pollen release today and poor conditions for entrainment and transport. Good conditions for pollen release tomorrow, moderate conditions for transport. Temperatures are favorable for pollen release today but high humidity and cloudy, overcast skies are only marginal for pollen release. The chance of heightened levels tomorrow is likely although conditions for transport are only marginal. Concentrations should be high close to source populations.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN - SATURDAY

JUNCTION - SATURDAY

SONORA - SATURDAY

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE - SATURDAY

AUSTIN - SUNDAY

JUNCTION - SUNDAY

SONORA - SUNDAY

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE - SUNDAY

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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