The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 19 January 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 19 - TX/OK: Today will begin with mostly cloudy skies north, cloudy skies in Austin and San Antonio and mostly to partly cloudy skies across the Edwards Plateau. The skies will clear during the day but cloudy conditions will again return overnight. Humidity is expected to be high and temperatures warm. In Oklahoma mid 60s to mid 70s are expected from north to south while in Texas Mid 70s are expected everywhere. Winds will be from the south, light to the north and moderate across Texas. This morning is showing some light showers across northwest Texas as moisture moves across the area. Tonight cloudy skies will occur with a 20% chance of precipitation in the areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will range from the mid 40s in the western areas of the Edwards Plateau to the lower 50s eastward. In the surrounding communities the lows will only drop into the upper 50s. Winds will remain moderate from the south switching to a southwesterly direction over the Plateau. Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies are expected tomorrow with temperatures returning to the mid to lower 70s across Texas. In Oklahoma temperatures will be in the 60s. Winds will remain moderate from the south except for stronger conditions in the western areas of the Plateau. Winds over the Plateau will be from the southwest. Wednesday night, cloudy conditions will prevail with winds moderate from the west and temperatures in the 50s in communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau and in the 40s over the Plateau.

Trajectory weather: Mostly cloudy skies will occur across central and southern Oklahoma today with mostly cloudy conditions tonight and tomorrow. Tomorrow night partly cloudy skies will return. Temperatures will be in the mid 60s in central Oklahoma and mid 70s along the border. Winds will be light from the south today, tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night. Tonight temperatures will fall into the mid 40s in central Oklahoma and lower 50s to the south. Wednesday temperatures will return to the mid 60s north and upper 60s along the border with Texas. There is a 20% chance of showers as the region remains relatively humid. Along the border the chance of rain increases to 30%. Wednesday night the chance of rain remains, but the temperatures will fall with lows in central Oklahoma in the upper 30s and along the border in the low to mid 40s. Across the region, the air appears stable, moving northward on southerly winds, until it gets across Oklahoma and then it will begin to rise in the atmosphere. Warm conditions today should lead to pollen release although if rain and high humidity moves into the area it could wash most of the released pollen from the atmosphere relatively quickly. Starting this afternoon pollen from Texas will move northward and unless processes cleanse the atmosphere will begin to impact communities in eastern Oklahoma..

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today; Moderate threat tomorrow ***Good conditions for pollen release today and Moderate conditions tomorrow; Good conditions for entrainment and transport today, Moderate conditions tomorrow. Warm conditions will occur with light and variable wind speeds and sunny skies near the Arbuckle Mountain population today. Temperatures warm into the mid 50s today and tomorrow. Conditions will be good for dissemination today and tomorrow but today light and variable winds should restrict its entrainment and travel. Tomorrow conditions will build with stronger winds and temperatures in the mid 50s. To the south moisture will be moving in potentially restricting some pollen rain and washing entrained pollen onto the ground. Because of these conditions, moderate threat exists today and a high threat will occur tomorrow.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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