The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 19 January 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 19 – TX/OK: Tuesday, January 19– TX/OK: Today will begin with mostly cloudy skies north, cloudy skies in Austin and San Antonio and mostly to partly cloudy skies across the Edwards Plateau. The skies will clear during the day but cloudy conditions will again return overnight. Humidity is expected to be high and temperatures warm. In Oklahoma mid 60s to mid 70s are expected from north to south while in Texas Mid 70s are expected everywhere. Winds will be from the south, light to the north and moderate across Texas. This morning is showing some light showers across northwest Texas as moisture moves across the area. Tonight cloudy skies will occur with a 20% chance of precipitation in the areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will range from the mid 40s in the western areas of the Edwards Plateau to the lower 50s eastward. In the surrounding communities the lows will only drop into the upper 50s. Winds will remain moderate from the south switching to a southwesterly direction over the Plateau. Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies are expected tomorrow with temperatures returning to the mid to lower 70s across Texas. In Oklahoma temperatures will be in the 60s. Winds will remain moderate from the south except for stronger conditions in the western areas of the Plateau. Winds over the Plateau will be from the southwest. Wednesday night, cloudy conditions will prevail with winds moderate from the west and temperatures in the 50s in communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau and in the 40s over the Plateau.

Trajectory weather: Conditions today will continue warm with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s across Texas. Skies will begin cloudy to mostly cloudy with some clearing during the afternoon. Winds will be moderate from the south. Tonight low temperatures will remain warm with most readings remaining in the 50s or dipping into the mid to upper 40s. Winds will remain from the south to southwest at moderate levels. Wednesday will see moisture begin to move in to northern Texas and Oklahoma with a 20 to 30% chance of showers. Temperatures will remain warm and in the 70s. winds will be more from the southwest at moderate levels picking up in strength towards west Texas. Wednesday night cloudy skies and warm temperatures will again occur with lows in the 50s to mid 40s. Winds will shift, coming from the west at moderate strengths.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today; High threat tomorrow ***Good conditions for pollen release today and Good conditions tomorrow; Good conditions for entrainment and transport today,Good conditions tomorrow. Temperatures today will be in the mid 70s region wide with moderate winds from the south. Humidity will be up and skies will be cloudy in the morning partially clearing during the day. Warm conditions along with ripe cones that are ready to disseminate their pollen will result in the high threat today. Pollen entrainment will be good today, the winds will be moderate and the atmosphere is relatively stable. Pollen entrained in the atmosphere will move north from their release point eventually heading north to northeast across central and eastern Oklahoma. Tomorrow, increasing humidity with a chance of showers north that, if occur will wash the entrained pollen out of the atmosphere. A general degradation of conditions will occur but with the trees still loaded with pollen and warm conditions a significant reduction is not expected.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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