The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 20 January 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 20 - TX/OK: Across the region the weather will remain seasonably warm with temperatures in the 70s throughout the tree populations in Oklahoma and Texas. Today skies will be partly cloudy to cloudy region wide. To the north winds will be light and variable, but across Texas the areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau will be moderately strong and from the south. On the Edwards Plateau winds will be from the southwest at moderate strength this morning building to very gusty conditions this afternoon. Temperatures across the region will be in the mid 70s in the areas surrounding the Plateau where they will be in the lower 70s. Tonight there is an increasing chance of rain from Dallas northward. Winds across Oklahoma will be light and variable. Across Texas winds will be from the west at moderate levels. Low temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s in Oklahoma and northern Texas. In the areas surrounding the Plateau temperatures will be in the lower 50s and on the Plateau in the mid 40s. Tomorrow will bring partly cloudy conditions across Oklahoma while sunnier conditions will occur across Texas. Region wide temperatures will return to conditions similar to today. Winds will be from the northwest to west at moderate levels. Tomorrow night partly cloudy conditions return with lows in the 30s to the north in Oklahoma and in the lower to mid 40s across Texas. Winds will be from the north in the areas surrounding the Plateau and from the south and southwest over the Plateau.

Trajectory weather: Partly cloudy skies, seasonally warm temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s along with light and variable winds will occur across Oklahoma today. Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies are in the forecast for tonight with a chance of thunderstorms and temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Winds will remain light and variable. Tomorrow and tomorrow night partly cloudy skies will prevail with tomorrows temperatures cooling by 10 degrees and in the mid to upper 30s tomorrow night. Winds will switch to coming from the north in central Oklahoma and from the west in southern Oklahoma. Tomorrow night central Oklahoma will switch from the east and become light and variable to the south. The air appears stable and moves northward across central Oklahoma, into central Kansas. Warm temperatures, with partly cloudy skies will result in good conditions for release today and tomorrow. The atmosphere will be stable today but could be affected if thunderstorms develop overnight. Conditions are good and the cones ripe thus pollen release into the atmosphere is expected today and tomorrow. Light and variable winds make entrainment and long distance travel moderate.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today; High threat tomorrow ***Good conditions for pollen release today and Good conditions tomorrow; Moderate conditions for entrainment and transport today,Good conditions tomorrow. Warm conditions but with light and variable wind speeds will occur today. Winds will increase to light levels tomorrow. Partly cloudy skies near the Arbuckle Mountain population but with warm temperatures are expected today and tomorrow. Conditions will be high for release today. We should be near the height of the season for cone ripening thus there could be a significant pulse of pollen into the atmosphere. The atmosphere will be stable but wind strength will be light and variable today. If significant pollen is released, entrainment and travel northward will be moderate today. Tomorrow with increasing wind strength the chance of long distance travel increases. For these reasons the threat today for release is high but the chance of entrainment and travel is moderate. Tomorrow the conditions fro entrainment and travel will improve.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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