The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 20 January 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Wednesday, January 20 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will remain seasonably warm with temperatures in the 70s throughout the tree populations in Oklahoma and Texas. Today skies will be partly cloudy to cloudy region wide. To the north winds will be light and variable, but across Texas the areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau will be moderately strong and from the south. On the Edwards Plateau winds will be from the southwest at moderate strength this morning building to very gusty conditions this afternoon. Temperatures across the region will be in the mid 70s in the areas surrounding the Plateau where they will be in the lower 70s. Tonight there is an increasing chance of rain from Dallas northward. Winds across Oklahoma will be light and variable. Across Texas winds will be from the west at moderate levels. Low temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s in Oklahoma and northern Texas. In the areas surrounding the Plateau temperatures will be in the lower 50s and on the Plateau in the mid 40s. Tomorrow will bring partly cloudy conditions across Oklahoma while sunnier conditions will occur across Texas. Region wide temperatures will return to conditions similar to today. Winds will be from the northwest to west at moderate levels. Tomorrow night partly cloudy conditions return with lows in the 30s to the north in Oklahoma and in the lower to mid 40s across Texas. Winds will be from the north in the areas surrounding the Plateau and from the south and southwest over the Plateau.

Trajectory weather: Conditions today will remain seasonably warm with cloudy to partly cloudy conditions. In northern Texas there is a 20% chance of precipitation while fog and drizzle are expected in Austin and San Antonio. Across the Plateau mostly cloudy skies will occur to the east and partly cloudy to the west. Temperatures will be in the 70s region wide. Moderate winds strengths from the south will occur in areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau, whereas on the Plateau winds will begin from the south switching to a southwesterly direction in the afternoon with very gusty conditions. Tonight temperatures will drop to the middle 40s but remain 10 degrees warmer, low 50s, in the surrounding communities. Winds will remain moderate from the west. Tomorrow will see mostly sunny skies with temperatures returning to the lower to mid 70s. Winds will be from the west and southwest across the Plateau and from the northwest in the surrounding communities. Tomorrow night will see partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the 40s.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today; High threat tomorrow ***Good conditions for pollen release today and Good conditions tomorrow;Good conditions for entrainment and transport today,Good conditions tomorrow. Temperatures today will be in the 70s with humid conditions around the Edwards Plateau resulting in fog and some drizzle early. The skies will clear in the afternoon and temperatures will reach the 70s. Winds today, will be from the south switching over the Plateau to a southwesterly direction and becoming strong and gusty. Because of these warm conditions and moderate to gusty winds, as well as the pollen cones being ripe and disseminating their pollen in the past few days a high threat is forecast for today and tomorrow. The atmosphere is stable early today, but becomes very buoyant this afternoon and tonight especially across the Plateau. The increased wind speeds means that the conditions for entrainment are good as well as travel, primarily to the east into southern Arkansas and Louisiana.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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