The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City




St. Louis MO



Date Issued: 21 January 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 21 - TX/OK: Across the region the weather will remain seasonably warm with temperatures in the 70s today and tomorrow. Skies will be sunny today across Texas with partly cloudy skies across Oklahoma. Winds will be light and variable to the north and moderate from the west across Texas. Tonight clear to mostly clear skies will dominate the region. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s from central Oklahoma towards the border region with Texas. In Texas, temperatures will be in the mid 40’s in the surrounding communities and in the lower 40s across the Edwards Plateau. Winds will remain light and variable across Oklahoma, whereas in Texas winds will be from the south at moderate wind strengths. On Friday, Temperatures will once again climb into the 60s to the north and 70s across Texas. Partly cloudy skies will occur across Oklahoma as well as the Edwards Plateau. Sunny skies will rule across the rest of the region. There will be a chance of isolated thunderstorms in communities surrounding the Plateau. Winds will be from the south at moderate levels climbing to strong winds in the afternoon. Friday night skies will be partly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy late. There is a 20% to 30% chance of precipitation in the form of thunderstorms. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s with moderate to strong winds primarily from the south except for the western regions of the Edwards Plateau where they will be out of the southwest. =

Trajectory weather: Sunny skies, seasonally warm temperatures in the lower 60s along with light and variable winds will occur across Oklahoma today. Clear skies are in the forecast for tonight with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. Winds will remain light and variable overnight into tomorrow. Tomorrow and tomorrow night partly cloudy to cloudy skies will prevail with tomorrows temperatures remaining in the 60s, in some areas warming over today’s conditions. Winds will pick up to moderate conditions coming out of the southeast. Friday night there is a 40% chance of shower with the cloudy skies and temperatures will drop into the mid to upper 40s. Wind will increase to strong conditions from the southeast. The trajectories move to the southeast on light and variable winds today but turn abruptly with the initiation of southeasterly winds tomorrow. The air appears heavy travelling at the ground surface away from the Arbuckle population. Warm temperatures, with partly cloudy skies will result in good conditions for release today and tomorrow. The atmosphere will be heavy today with very light winds but could be affected if thunderstorms develop tomorrow and especially tomorrow night. Conditions are good and the cones ripe thus pollen release into the atmosphere is expected today and tomorrow. Light and variable winds make entrainment and long distance travel a moderate concern.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today; High threat tomorrow ***Good conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow; Moderate conditions for entrainment and transport today and tomorrow. Warm conditions but with light and variable wind speeds will occur today. Winds will increase to moderate levels tomorrow. Sunny skies today near the Arbuckle Mountain population with warm temperatures are expected today and tomorrow are good conditions for release. We should be near the height of the season for cone ripening thus there could be a significant pulse of pollen into the atmosphere. The atmosphere will be heavy with wind strength light and variable, therefore only moderate conditions for entrainment and travel If significant pollen is released, entrainment and travel southeasterly will not affect any major urban populations. Tomorrow with increasing wind strength the chance of entrainment and long distance travel increases, however the chance of thunderstorms could wash some of the pollen from the skies.. For these reasons the threat today and tomorrow for release is good but the chance of entrainment and travel is moderate..

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.


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