The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 21 January 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Thursday, January 21 – TX/OK: Across the region the weather will remain seasonably warm with temperatures in the 70s today and tomorrow. Skies will be sunny today across Texas with partly cloudy skies across Oklahoma. Winds will be light and variable to the north and moderate from the west across Texas. Tonight clear to mostly clear skies will dominate the region. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s from central Oklahoma towards the border region with Texas. In Texas, temperatures will be in the mid 40’s in the surrounding communities and in the lower 40s across the Edwards Plateau. Winds will remain light and variable across Oklahoma, whereas in Texas winds will be from the south at moderate wind strengths. On Friday, Temperatures will once again climb into the 60s to the north and 70s across Texas. Partly cloudy skies will occur across Oklahoma as well as the Edwards Plateau. Sunny skies will rule across the rest of the region. There will be a chance of isolated thunderstorms in communities surrounding the Plateau. Winds will be from the south at moderate levels climbing to strong winds in the afternoon. Friday night skies will be partly cloudy becoming mostly cloudy late. There is a 20% to 30% chance of precipitation in the form of thunderstorms. Low temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s with moderate to strong winds primarily from the south except for the western regions of the Edwards Plateau where they will be out of the southwest.

Trajectory weather: Conditions today will be warm, and sunny across most of the Texas region. Winds will be moderate from the west and temperatures in the mid to upper 70s in the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau, and in the low 70s in areas on the Plateau. Tonight mostly clear skies will prevail with temperatures in the mid 40s. Winds will be south at moderate conditions. Tomorrow the surrounding areas will be sunny once more, but the Plateau will be partly cloudy. Winds will be from the south during the day starting at moderate conditions and building towards strong conditions. Tomrrow night partly cloudy building to mostly cloudy conditions on the Plateau will prevail. There will be a 20% to 30% chance of precipitation across the region and lows will be in the 50s. Winds will be from the south at moderate levels with western areas of the Plateau being gusty with strong winds from the southwest. The trajectories move towards the north to northwest today and tonight and then shift towards the southwest tomorrow and tomorrow night. The atmosphere appears relatively stable for the next 24 hours then becomes more buoyant across the region.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today; High threat tomorrow ***Good conditions for pollen release today and Good conditions tomorrow;Good conditions for entrainment and transport today, Good conditions tomorrow. Warm temperatures and sunny skies today, clear skies tonight, and sunny to partly cloudy skies tomorrow along with building winds make for good pollen release conditions. On Friday night a chance of precipitation is expected across the region. Winds will be moderate today and tonight increasing to gusty conditions tomorrow, especially tomorrow afternoon on the Edwards Plateau. The atmosphere will begin relatively stable today but as low pressure moves through the area it will become more buoyant. The high humidity and rain in the region on Friday could wash out any pollen that might get into the atmosphere. Because of the good conditions for pollen release as well as entrainment and travel a high threat exist today and tomorrow. .

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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