The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 25 January 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Monday, January 25 – TX/OK: Sunny skies will prevail today across the region. Temperatures will be seasonal in most locations, in the 50s across Oklahoma and into the mid to upper 60s across the central portion of Texas. The winds will be from the west at moderate levels. Some areas of the Edwards Plateau will see wind strength increase during the afternoon. Tonight skies will be mostly clear with temperatures cooling into the upper 20s on the Plateau and the upper 30s in the area surrounding the Plateau. Winds will be light an variable across central and southern Oklahoma and in Texas will be mixed and light in strength. Overnight and into tomorrow the primary wind direction will become from the southeast. Tuesday will be Sunny to mostly sunny across the region except for the Edwards Plateau where conditions will be partly cloudy. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s across the Plateau and in the surrounding communities. To the north temperatures will be in the 50s just climbing into the 60s along the Texas Oklahoma border. Winds will be from the southeast at moderate conditions. Tuesday night will see warmer conditions with most areas across Texas in the 50s and in the 40s to the north. Winds will continue from the southeast at moderate levels. Along the edge communities expect fog and drizzle with the more humid conditions.

Trajectory weather: Sunny skies will occur across central and southern Oklahoma today with clear conditions tonight. Sunny skies will occur tomorrow but tomorrow night will see partly cloudy skies. Today temperatures will be in the lower 50s in central Oklahoma and upper 50s in the area of the Arbuckle population. Winds will be moderate from the northwest. Tonight skies will remain clear and cold with temperatures in the 20s to the north and lower 30s towards Texas. Tomorrow will be sunny with similar temperatures as today. Winds will be light and variable. Tomorrow night will see mostly cloudy skies as moisture moves into the area from the south on southeasterly winds. Winds will be from the southeast at moderate levels. Across Oklahoma, the air appears heavy , moving along the ground. Warming temperatures and sunny skies today should lead to pollen release. However, light winds and a heavy atmosphere will result in moderate conditions for entrainment and travel from the Oklahoma populations.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today; High threat tomorrow ***Good conditions for pollen release today and Good conditions tomorrow; Moderateconditions for entrainment and transport today,Good conditions tomorrow. Seasonal conditions will occur with light and variable wind speeds and sunny skies near the Arbuckle Mountain population today. Temperatures warm into the upper 50s today and tomorrow. Conditions will be good for dissemination today with moderate wind speeds. Tomorrow light and variable winds should restrict its entrainment and travel. Tomorrow will see similar conditions, but tomorrow night winds will have shifted coming from the southeast with increased amounts of humidity and cloud cover. Because of these conditions, high threat exists today and tomorrow but good conditions for pollen release will decline, especially later tomorrow with higher humidities.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

Return to Forecasting Home Page