The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 25 January 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Monday, January 25– TX/OK: Sunny skies will prevail today across the region. Temperatures will be seasonal in most locations, in the 50s across Oklahoma and into the mid to upper 60s across the central portion of Texas. The winds will be from the west at moderate levels. Some areas of the Edwards Plateau will see wind strength increase during the afternoon. Tonight skies will be mostly clear with temperatures cooling into the upper 20s on the Plateau and the upper 30s in the area surrounding the Plateau. Winds will be light an variable across central and southern Oklahoma and in Texas will be mixed and light in strength. Overnight and into tomorrow the primary wind direction will become from the southeast. Tuesday will be Sunny to mostly sunny across the region except for the Edwards Plateau where conditions will be partly cloudy. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s across the Plateau and in the surrounding communities. To the north temperatures will be in the 50s just climbing into the 60s along the Texas Oklahoma border. Winds will be from the southeast at moderate conditions. Tuesday night will see warmer conditions with most areas across Texas in the 50s and in the 40s to the north. Winds will continue from the southeast at moderate levels. Along the edge communities expect fog and drizzle with the more humid conditions.

Trajectory weather: Conditions today will continue warm with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s across Texas. Skies will be sunny today and mostly clear tonight. Winds will be moderate from the west today. Tonight low temperatures will cool being in the upper 20s across the Edwards Plateau and in the mid to upper 30s in the surrounding edge communities. Winds overnight will become light and mixed switching around to the east and eventually from the southeast tomorrow. Skies tomorrow will be mostly sunny in the areas surrounding the Plateau but partly cloudy over the Plateau. Temperatures will return into the mid to upper 60s. Winds will be light to moderate from the southeast. The southeasterly flow will bring more moisture into the area. Tomorrow night partly cloudy conditions will occur with the chance of drizzle and fog in the areas around the Edwards Plateau. Temperatures will be warm with lows in the 50s in most places. Winds will remain light to moderate from the southeast.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today; High threat tomorrow ***Good conditions for pollen release today and Good conditions tomorrow;Good conditions for entrainment and transport today, Good conditions tomorrow. Temperatures today will be in the mid 60s region wide with moderate winds from the west. Skies will be sunny across the region. Warm conditions along with ripe cones that are ready to disseminate their pollen will result in the high threat today. Pollen entrainment will be good today, the winds will be moderate and the atmosphere starts relatively stable, but becomes buoyant tonight. Pollen entrained in the atmosphere will move east initially from their release point then turns northward as southeasterly breezes begin tomorrow. Tomorrow, increasing humidity but with sunny skies and moderate winds from the southeast. Conditions on Tuesday are expected to be very similar to today but with increasing humidity overnight.
Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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