The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 26 January 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK

Regional Weather: Tuesday, Januar 26 TX/OK: Sunny skies will begin the day but with increasing clouds towards the afternoon and this evening. Temperatures will be seasonal in most locations, with 50s across Oklahoma and into the mid to upper 60s across the central portion of Texas. The winds in Oklahoma will be light and variable. Across Texas the winds will start from the east at moderate levels in the areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau then switching to the southeast this afternoon. On the Edwards Plateau winds will be from the south at moderate levels building during the day. Tonight mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions will prevail across the area with fog over the Plateau and a chance of rain in the southern surrounding communities. Temperatures will be mild only falling into the lower 50s across Texas but cooler north, in the 30s and 40s. Winds will be moderate from the south to southeast at 5 to 10 miles per hour. Tomorrow will be cloudy with increasing chance of precipitation. In Oklahoma there will be a 20% chance of rain. In Texas the eastern portion of the Edwards Plateau and has a chance of thunderstorms and precipitation, 20% to 30%. Temperatures will be in the 60s region wide. Winds will continue to be from the southeast at moderate levels. Some of the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau will experience gusty winds in the afternoon. Wednesday night the chance of precipitation increases under cloudy skies. Low temperatures will be very mild only dropping into the 50’s and low 60s overnight. Winds remain moderate out of the southeast.

Trajectory weather: Sunny skies will occur across central and southern Oklahoma today with mostly cloudy conditions tonight. Mostly cloudy skies will hang on tomorrow and tomorrow night. Today temperatures will be in the lower 50s in central Oklahoma and reach 60 in the area of the Arbuckle population. Winds will be light and variable. Temperatures will be in the upper 30s in central Oklahoma and the mid 40s further south. Tomorrow a 20% chance of precipitation will occur under cloudy skies with temperatures returning to the 50s and 60s from central to southern Oklahoma. Winds will be moderate with some higher sustained winds from the south. Tomorrow night a significant chance of rain and potential snow towards the north. Temperatures will be in the mid 30s north and 40s along the border with Texas. Winds will be moderate from the northeast in central Oklahoma and the southeast towards Texas. Today the air appears stable with light and variable conditions Warm temperatures and sunny skies today should lead to pollen release. However, light winds and a stable atmosphere will result in moderate conditions for entrainment and travel from the Oklahoma populations.

OUTLOOK: *** High Threat today; Moderate threat tomorrow ***Good conditions for pollen release today and Moderateconditions tomorrow;Moderate conditions for entrainment and transport today, Moderateconditions tomorrow. Seasonal temperatures will occur with light and variable wind speeds and sunny skies near the Arbuckle Mountain population today. Temperatures warm into the upper 50s today and tomorrow. Conditions will be good for dissemination today but with light and variable wind speeds entrainment and travel will be reduced. Tomorrow mostly cloudy skies with increased humidity will occur. Temperatures will be seasonal and winds will increase to moderate conditions. However there is a chance of precipitation that builds into tomorrow evening. Because of these conditions, high threat exists today and tomorrow but good conditions for pollen release today will decline to moderate condtions, especially later tomorrow with higher humidity and an increasing chance of precipitation.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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