The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

 

Date Issued: 26 January 2010

Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas

Regional Weather: Tuesday, January 26– TX/OK: Sunny skies will begin the day but with increasing clouds towards the afternoon and this evening. Temperatures will be seasonal in most locations, with 50s across Oklahoma and into the mid to upper 60s across the central portion of Texas. The winds in Oklahoma will be light and variable. Across Texas the winds will start from the east at moderate levels in the areas surrounding the Edwards Plateau then switching to the southeast this afternoon. On the Edwards Plateau winds will be from the south at moderate levels building during the day. Tonight mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions will prevail across the area with fog over the Plateau and a chance of rain in the southern surrounding communities. Temperatures will be mild only falling into the lower 50s across Texas but cooler north, in the 30s and 40s. Winds will be moderate from the south to southeast at 5 to 10 miles per hour. Tomorrow will be cloudy with increasing chance of precipitation. In Oklahoma there will be a 20% chance of rain. In Texas the eastern portion of the Edwards Plateau and has a chance of thunderstorms and precipitation, 20% to 30%. Temperatures will be in the 60s region wide. Winds will continue to be from the southeast at moderate levels. Some of the communities surrounding the Edwards Plateau will experience gusty winds in the afternoon. Wednesday night the chance of precipitation increases under cloudy skies. Low temperatures will be very mild only dropping into the 50’s and low 60s overnight. Winds remain moderate out of the southeast.

Trajectory weather: Conditions today will continue warm with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s across Texas. Skies will be sunny but with mostly cloudy conditions tonight. Winds will be moderate from the east and southeast today, becoming predominantly from the southeast for the rest of the forecast period. Tonight low temperatures will remain mild in the lower to mid 50s across the region. Skies tomorrow will be cloudy with eastern areas of the Plateau and its surrounding communities having an increasing chance of precipitation. Temperatures will return to the mid 60s tomorrow. Winds will maintain moderate levels from the southeast. Tomorrow night moisture moves in to the region with the chance of thunderstorms and precipitation across the area. Temperatures will stay mild in the 50s and winds will remain from the southeast at moderate levels.

OUTLOOK: *** High threat today; High threat tomorrow ***Good conditions for pollen release today and Good conditions tomorrow;Good conditions for entrainment and transport today,Good conditions tomorrow. Temperatures today will be in the mid 60s region wide with moderate winds from the southeast. Skies will begin to cloud up into the evening. Warm conditions along with ripe cones that are ready to disseminate their pollen will result in the high threat today. Pollen entrainment will be ood today, the winds will be moderate and the atmosphere starts relatively stable, then becomes buoyant tonight as the trajectories move over Oklahoma. Pollen entrained in the atmosphere will move sweep northward towards a north-northeasterly direction. Tomorrow, increasing humidity with cloudy skies and moderate winds from the southeast will reduce the availability of pollen but conditions for release will still occur. Conditions on Wenesday are expected to be very similar to today but with increasing humidity and chance of precipitation in the afternoon and overnight.

Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.

AUSTIN

JUNCTION

SONORA

EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE

Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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