The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

SATURDAY / SUNDAY

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Oklahoma City

Low / Low

Tulsa

Low / Low

St. Louis MO

Low / Low

 

Date Issued: 30 January 2010


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Arbuckle Mountains, OK


Regional Weather: Sat and Sun, January 30 and 31 – TX/OK: The winter storm that brought rainfall to Texas and snow and freezing rain to Oklahoma has moved east. Some lingering clouds from the system will remain for much of the region along with below normal temperatures and north winds. In Oklahoma skies will be partly to mostly cloudy today with temperatures ranging from the upper 20s in the north to the low 30s in the south. Winds will be moderate this afternoon and from the north. Overnight lows will be in the teens. On Sunday, temperatures should be above freezing ranging from the mid 30s in the north to low 40s in southern Oklahoma. Winds will be shifting around to southerly during the morning. Sunday night low temperatures will range from the 20s to low 30s. In Texas, skies will be clear to partly cloudy today with temperatures ranging from the upper 30s in north Texas to the mid 50s in the south with moderate northerly winds. Overnight lows throughout most of the region will drop below freezing again tonight. A hard freeze is expected across portions of Hill County and higher elevations. On Sunday, temperatures should rebound somewhat although still below normal for the area. Temperatures will be in the upper 40s in the north to low 50s in south. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy and winds will shift around to easterly and then southeasterly winds. Wind speeds will be low. Sunday night temperatures will be in the 30s to low 40s. Chances of rain re-enter the forecast on Monday as a trough develops along the coast.

Trajectory weather: Air mass trajectories from the Arbuckle Mountains move to the south this afternoon and then curve back around to the north tomorrow as the winds shift to southerly. Conditions at the source area in the Arbuckle Mountains are unfavorable for pollen release with temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s today. Overnight lows will be around 20 with highs on Sunday reaching 40 in the afternoon, which is still unfavorable for pollen release. Trajectories on Sunday move to the north as southerly winds return.

OUTLOOK: *** Low Threat today and Low Threat tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today and tomorrow. Temperatures at the source area are too cold for pollen release today and will remain too cold tomorrow.


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by black star on map): Davis, OK.

SATURDAY




SUNDAY



Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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