The University of Tulsa

Mountain Cedar Pollen Forecast

SATURDAY / SUNDAY

Metropolitan Area

Exposure Risk

Dallas/Fort Worth

Low / Low

Austin

Low / Moderate

San Antonio

Low / Moderate

 

Date Issued: 30 January 2010


Mountain Cedar Location(s): Edwards Plateau, Texas


Regional Weather: Sat and Sun, January 30 and 31 – TX/OK: The winter storm that brought rainfall to Texas and snow and freezing rain to Oklahoma has moved east. Some lingering clouds from the system will remain for much of the region along with below normal temperatures and north winds. In Oklahoma skies will be partly to mostly cloudy today with temperatures ranging from the upper 20s in the north to the low 30s in the south. Winds will be moderate this afternoon and from the north. Overnight lows will be in the teens. On Sunday, temperatures should be above freezing ranging from the mid 30s in the north to low 40s in southern Oklahoma. Winds will be shifting around to southerly during the morning. Sunday night low temperatures will range from the 20s to low 30s. In Texas, skies will be clear to partly cloudy today with temperatures ranging from the upper 30s in north Texas to the mid 50s in the south with moderate northerly winds. Overnight lows throughout most of the region will drop below freezing again tonight. A hard freeze is expected across portions of Hill County and higher elevations. On Sunday, temperatures should rebound somewhat although still below normal for the area. Temperatures will be in the upper 40s in the north to low 50s in south. Skies will be clear to partly cloudy and winds will shift around to easterly and then southeasterly winds. Wind speeds will be low. Sunday night temperatures will be in the 30s to low 40s. Chances of rain re-enter the forecast on Monday as a trough develops along the coast.

Trajectory weather: Today the air mass trajectories from the Edwards Plateau start off moving to the south on moderate northerly winds and then shift around and move north as winds shift overnight and tomorrow. At the source areas today temperatures will be in the upper 40s to low 50s just barely in the favorable range for pollen release. However, the wet conditions following yesterday's rain will hinder any pollen release. Overnight temperatures tonight will be below freezing again with a slight warm up tomorrow in most areas. Temperatures will reach the favorable range tomorrow afternoon which may allow some pollen release in the afternoon. Trajectories on Sunday move to the north on southerly and southeasterly winds.

OUTLOOK: *** Low threat today, Moderate threat tomorrow *** Poor conditions for pollen release today, moderate conditions tomorrow. Poor conditions for entrainment and travel today, moderate conditions tomorrow. Temperatures today will barely reach the favorable range, combined with the wet conditions following yesterday's rain result in poor conditions for pollen release. Temperatures to


Trajectory Start (s) (shown by * on map): Austin, TX; Junction, TX; Sonora, TX.


AUSTIN - SATURDAY



JUNCTION - SATURDAY



SONORA - SATURDAY



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE - SATURDAY


AUSTIN - SUNDAY



JUNCTION - SUNDAY



SONORA - SUNDAY



EDWARDS PLATEAU COMPOSITE - SUNDAY




Prepared by: Estelle Levetin (Faculty of Biological Science, The University of Tulsa, 800 S. Tucker Dr., Tulsa, OK 74104) and ) and Peter K Van de Water (Department of Earth and Environmental Science, California State University Fresno, 2576 East San Ramon Avenue, M/S ST24, Fresno CA 93740-8039). This forecast gives the anticipated future track of released Mountain Cedar pollen, weather conditions over the region and along the forecast pathway, and an estimated time of arrival for various metropolitan areas.

 

Questions: Aerobiology Lab e-mail: pollen@utulsa.edu

 

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